巴黎协定下中国碳排放权省域分配及减排潜力评估研究

通过构建碳排放权区域分配模型完成了省域分配,在此基础上与当前各地实际碳排放量进行比对,明晰了各自初始空间余额;而后对碳排放权欠缺地区的碳减排潜力进行了综合评估。研究结果表明：（1）我国30个省区碳排放权分配存在较大差异,其中云南配额最高,占比高达10.53%;宁夏配额最少,占比仅为0.28%。（2）全国有14个省区碳排放权初始空间余额表现出盈余状态,根据成因差异可大致分为“低排放、高配额”“低排放、低配额”以及“高排放、高配额”等三种类型;其他16个地区均表现出一定程度的欠缺,结合数值差异可划分为以江苏等4地为代表的轻度欠缺地区,以天津等7地为代表的中度欠缺地区,以及以辽宁等5地为代表的重度欠缺地区。（3）浙江、天津、山东等3地目前所具备的碳减排潜力要明显高于其他地区,而各地区的碳减排潜力水平虽与其碳排放权欠缺量表现出了一定趋同性但并非完全一致。

Provincial distribution of China's carbon emission rights and assessment of its emission reduction potential under the Paris Agreement

In this paper, the provincial distribution is completed by constructing a regional distribution model of carbon emission rights. On this basis, the initial space balance is clarified by comparing with the actual carbon emissions in various places. Then, the potential of carbon emission reduction in regions lacking carbon emission rights is comprehensively evaluated. The results show that: (1) The distribution of carbon emission rights in 30 provinces of China is quite different, among which Yunnan has the highest quota, accounting for 10.53%, while Ningxia has the least quota, accounting for only 0.28%. (2) The initial space balance of carbon emission rights in 14 provinces of China shows a surplus state, which can be divided into three types according to the difference of causes, namely "low emission, high quota", "low emission, low quota" and "high emission, high quota". All the other 16 provinces show some degree of deficiency. Combined with the numerical differences, they can be identified into three types: 4 provinces with slight deficiency represented by Jiangsu, 7 with moderate deficiency represented by Tianjin, and 5 with severe deficiency represented by Liaoning. (3) Currently, Zhejiang, Tianjin and Shandong have significantly higher carbon emission reduction potential than other regions, while the carbon emission reduction potential level of each region shows certain convergence but is not completely consistent with a lack of carbon emission rights.