全球跨境水资源合作时空演变及生成机制

跨境水资源合作对人类社会的可持续发展和国家水权益保障意义重大。以166个国家为研究样本,选择1948—2008年全球跨境水资源合作事件为基础数据,提取合作关系并构建全球跨境水资源合作网络。基于社会网络分析、层次分析等方法,探讨了跨境水合作事件及其网络的时空复杂性,阐述了跨境水合作生成机制与合作类型。研究发现：水合作事件数量与频次呈波动增长,阶段特征显著;水合作网络结构的去中心化、多极化和区域化趋势明显,东西方阵营在冷战时代主导了全球水合作,后冷战时代的热点合作广泛产生在非洲、东欧地区和亚洲水塔周边地区;水合作对地理距离表现为高敏感性,同一流域内国家互动频繁,域外大国在不同时期介入热点流域水合作事务;国家行为体、区域合作关系和国际合作体系三个层次综合影响水合作关系的生成,各层次内部有着复杂的多因素互动,强制型、功利型、规范型和意识形态型水合作是四种主要跨境水合作类型。

Spatio-temporal evolution and generative mechanism of global transboundary water resources cooperation

Transboundary water resources cooperation is of great significance to the sustainable development of human society and the protection of national water rights and interests. Based on historical transboundary water cooperation data from 1948-2008, this paper extracted and analyzed the cooperation relationships between 166 countries. By using social network analysis and level of analysis methods, the paper discussed the spatio-temporal evolution of transboundary water resources cooperation events and networks, as well as the generative mechanism and type of cooperation. We found that: Firstly, the number of events and the frequency of cooperation increased in fluctuation, and there were obvious phase changes. Secondly, the structure of the water cooperation network is characterized by multi-centrality, with a trend of decentralization, multi-polarization, and regionalization. The Eastern Bloc and the Western Bloc dominated global water cooperation in the Cold War era. Africa, Eastern Europe, and the surrounding areas of the Asian Water Tower have shown a high demand for water cooperation in the Post-Cold War Era. Thirdly, water cooperation is sensitive to geographical distances, and countries within the same basin interact frequently. Extraterritorial powers are involved in hotspot water cooperation affairs at different phases. Fourthly, state actors, regional cooperation relationships, and international cooperation system, represent three levels that comprehensively affect the generation of water cooperation relationships. And there are complex multi-factor interactions at each level. Coercive, utilitarian, normative, and ideological water cooperations are the four main types of transboundary water cooperation.