工业生态效率对PM2.5污染的影响及溢出效应

针对2004—2016年中国地级市工业生态效率与PM_2.5的时空关联特征和影响作用关系的研究表明：（1）工业生态效率与PM_2.5呈时空交错分布特征,PM_2.5高污染区连片分布于华北平原及长江中下游城市,工业生态效率高等级区集中分布于长三角、珠三角和环渤海经济区等沿海地市及中西部城市群内部分中心地市;（2）工业生态效率对PM_2.5的冲击表现出“U型”变化的负向累积效应,PM_2.5对工业生态效率的冲击则表现为“倒U型”变化的正向累积效应;（3）工业生态效率与PM_2.5呈稳定时空关联演化特征,高高关联类型区集中分布于京津冀城市群、山东半岛城市群和长三角城市群内大部分城市,低低关联类型区多分布于鄱阳湖城市群、关中城市群及西部地市;（4）工业生态效率对PM_2.5总体上具有显著且稳健的正向影响,但表现出明显的空间异质性,工业集聚水平、科技创新及城市绿化率起到显著负向影响,而城市规模、环保监督及产业结构系数影响并不显著。

Influence and spillover effect of industrial eco-efficiency on PM2.5 pollution

By means of spatial analysis and econometric models, the spatio-temporal correlation characteristics and effects between PM_2.5 pollution and industrial eco-efficiency of prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2016. The results show that: (1) Industrial eco-efficiency and PM_2.5 shows a pattern of spatio-temporal staggered distribution. Areas with high PM_2.5 pollution are mainly concentrated in the North China Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while high industrial eco-efficiency areas are distributed in coastal cities such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Rim Economic Zone, and a few major cities in the urban agglomerations of central and western China. (2) There is reciprocal interaction relationship between industrial eco-efficiency and PM_2.5 pollution. Industrial eco-efficiency has a negative cumulative effect on PM_2.5 pollution, and shows a "U-shaped" pattern, while the influence of PM_2.5 pollution on industrial eco-efficiency is manifested by the positive cumulative effect of "inverted U-shaped" change. (3) Industrial eco-efficiency and PM_2.5 pollution have significant spatio-temporal association, and the evolution of different types of spatio-temporal correlation keeps higher stability. Thereinto, the high industrial eco-efficiency and the high PM_2.5 pollution regions are mainly concentrated in the urban agglomerations of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Shandong Peninsula and the Yangtze River Delta; the low industrial eco-efficiency and the low PM_2.5 pollution regions are mainly distributed in the urban agglomerations of the Poyang Lake, the Guanzhong and the western region, as well as in a few cities in the northeast region. (4) Overall, industrial eco-efficiency has a significant and robust positive effect on PM_2.5 pollution, but shows significant spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, the industrial agglomeration level, technological innovation and urban greening rates have a significant negative impact on PM_2.5 pollution, while the effect of other variables is not significant.