基于可计算一般均衡模型的张掖市水资源调控模拟研究

引入可计算一般均衡模型作为张掖市水资源调控研究的基础工具,模拟计算了张掖市将种植业部门生产规模和产品输出调控在不同水平时的社会经济运行情况。结果表明:现有生产条件下,缩减种植业部门产品的生产或向外输出均有利于国民经济生产中水资源的优化配置,并促进张掖市社会经济的发展;相对于控制种植业部门的生产规模来说,控制种植业部门产品的向外输出水平不仅能使张掖市取得更好的社会经济效益,而且还能从经济生产用水中节约出7 746.82×104m3的水资源,可用于张掖市社会经济生活的消耗或黑河流域中下游的生态环境建设。

Study and Simulation on Water Resources Regulation in Zhangye City Based on CGE Model

As a powerful tool for policy analysis, the Computable General Equilibrium Model has been introduced to study the regulation of water resources in Zhangye City. Based on this model, the study has simulated the changes of the operation of Zhangye economy as the production scale and products exportation of planting sector were controlled in different levels. It is shown that the restriction of the planting sector’s production scale and products exportation under current existing production conditions would be helpful to the allocation of water resources and the development of socio-economy in Zhangye City. However, compared to the restriction of the planting sector’s production scale, restriction of the planting sector’s products exportation could make Zhangye achieve better socio-economic benefits and ecological effects. The calculated results show that the limitation of the products exportation of planting sector would not only increase regional production, Gross Domestic Product and employment, but also save 77.5 million m³ of water from the regional production process, which could be used for the consumption of social life or construction of environment in the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin.