山东省农业多功能的时空演化特征与驱动机制分析

农业供给侧改革与乡村振兴背景下,深入挖掘各地区农业多种功能,统筹不同农业功能特征地域的协调发展,成为促进农业增收、实现农业可持续发展、保障食物安全的关键。农业多功能的演变受到区域农业资源禀赋与社会经济发展水平和阶段的复杂影响。以山东省为例,选取2004年、2011年、2017年三个时间截面,构建农业多功能评价指标体系,运用空间错位指数、回归分析等方法对县域农业多功能的时空演变规律与驱动机制进行分析。研究发现：（1）2004—2017年,山东省农业的农产品供给功能和经济发展功能分别呈先升后降和先降后升的增长态势,社会保障功能和生态服务功能分别呈持续下降和先降后升的下降趋势。（2）研究期内,农产品供给功能与生态服务功能对农业资源禀赋依赖较强,分别呈现出沿平原—丘陵—山地递减与递增的空间格局;经济发展功能与社会保障功能受社会经济发展水平和阶段影响较大,时空差异明显。（3）各驱动因子对于同一功能中不同要素的作用方向与强度存在差异,引发农业各功能结构的变化。基于功能视角提出山东省农业转型发展的路径选择与分区优化策略。

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of agricultural multifunctions in Shandong province

Under the background of the agricultural supply-side structural reform and rural revitalization, it is critical to raise farmers' income, realize sustainable agricultural development and guarantee food security by developing multiple agriculture functions in various regions and coordinating the development of regions with different agricultural functional characteristics. The spatio-temporal differentiation of agricultural multifunctions results from the comprehensive effects of the agricultural resource endowments and the socio-economic development level and stages. This paper constructs an evaluation index system of agricultural multifunctions. Taking Shandong province as an example, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of agricultural multifunctions at county level from 2004 to 2017 by using spatial mismatch, regression analysis and so on. The results are shown as follows: The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural functions in the province were significantly different during 2004-2017. Among them, the agricultural products supplying function showed a growth trend of increasing first and decreasing afterwards, and its high-value areas were mainly distributed in the "half-ring" area surrounding the south-central mountainous area of Shandong province; the economic development function showed a growth trend of decreasing first and increasing afterwards, and its high-value areas were transformed from traditional agricultural areas with high proportion of agriculture to modern agricultural areas with high agricultural output value and distinctive agricultural areas which have high-value agricultural products or prosperous correlative industries such as agricultural tourism; the social security function showed a downward trend, and its high-value areas were concentrated in the grain producing areas with large farmland area per labor and the mountainous-hilly areas with distinctive agriculture; the ecological service function showed a downward trend of decreasing first and increasing afterwards, and its high-value areas were mainly distributed in mountainous-hilly areas with good ecological basement. The impact of factors on different elements of the same function differed in direction and extent, which resulted in changes of agricultural functional structure. Finally, based on the functional perspective, this paper proposes the development paths and zoning optimization strategies for agriculture in Shandong province.