宁南山区水资源承载能力及移民规模研究

通过对宁南山区水资源开发利用模式的剖析,建立了农业发展模式,提出当地水资源承载能力和合理的搬迁人口规模。讨论了干旱区水资源承载能力的理论和方法,以2000年作为基准年对宁南山区的人口、粮食需求进行了分析预测,提出了当地的农业发展模式和相应的农业生产能力,最后根据GDP和粮食生产能力,给出了宁南山区的水资源承载能力将从现状的230×104人提高到2020年的400×104人,以县为单元累计的行政合理移民规模为不到50×104人,可使生态环境得到不断恢复和有效保护。

Water resources carrying capacity and emigration of mountain areas of southern Ningxia

Through analysis of the pattern of water resources development and utilization in the mountain areas of southern Ningxia,the agricultural development model was established and local water resources carrying capacity and emigrant scale was put forward.Firstly,this paper discussed the theory and calculation method of water resources carrying capacity in an arid zone.Then,regarding 2000 as a base year,the population growth and food demand in the mountain areas of southern Ningxia were predicted to recommend agricultural development pattern adapting to the local conditions and estimate the agricultural production capacity.Finally, according to GDP and food production capacity,it was concluded that water resources carrying capacity in mountain areas of southern Ningxia might be increased from 2 300 000 people in the base year to 4 000 000 people in the target year 2020,and regarding a county as a unit,500 000 emigrants or less in accu-mulative total might be reasonable.As a result,the ecosystem might be restored and the envir-onment effectively protected.