城市发展对上海太阳辐射特征的影响分析

伴随着上海城市化的发展，太阳辐射特征也发生了一系列变化。利用上海1991-2012 年的辐射资料以及上海市统计年鉴资料，分析了上海地面太阳辐射的年际变化规律，并通过相关分析、灰色关联分析、GM（1，N）模型研究了上海城市发展综合指标及各个城市发展因子对太阳辐射特征的影响。结果显示，1991-2012 年上海太阳散射辐射呈上升趋势，直接辐射呈下降趋势，总辐射呈轻微下降趋势。上海城市化进程综合指标与太阳散射辐射呈正相关，与太阳直接辐射呈负相关，而与总辐射之间无显著相关关系。影响太阳散射辐射和直接辐射最主要的城市因素是人口密度，其次还有工业能源终端消费量和住宅竣工建筑面积等。对于散射辐射和直接辐射，GM（1，N）模型的拟合值与实际值比较一致，体现了GM（1，N）模型在城市多因子关联系统中应用的优越性。

Analysis of Effects of Urbanization on Solar Radiation Features in Shanghai

The solar radiation has undergone a series of changes with the urbanization of Shanghai.This study attempts to determine the effects of urbanization on solar radiation features in Shanghai. According to the solar radiation data during the period 1991-2012 and the data of Shanghai statistical yearbooks, the annual variations of surface solar radiation were analyzed.The relations between comprehensive index of urbanization and the solar radiation were investigatedby correlation analysis. The effects of each urbanization factor on the solar radiation featureswere investigated by grey correlation analysis and GM(1, N) model. During the period 1991-2012, diffuse radiation increased, the tendency rate was 120.2 MJ·m^-2/10 a; direct radiationdecreased, the tendency rate was -119.8 MJ·m^-2/10 a; and total solar radiation decreasedslightly. The comprehensive index of Shanghai urbanization was positively correlated with thediffuse radiation and negatively correlated with the direct radiation; however, there was no significantcorrelation between the comprehensive index of Shanghai urbanization and total solarradiation. The upper most factor on both diffuse solar radiation and direct solar radiation was population density, while the other important factors were industrial energy consumption andresidential building area. For diffuse radiation and direct radiation, the fitted values of GM(1, N) agree quite closely with actual values. This indicates that GM(1, N) model has great advantages for multifactor correlative system prediction.