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东北地区采暖气候条件变化特征及预测
引用本文:陈莉,李帅,覃雪,张洪梅,张洪杰.东北地区采暖气候条件变化特征及预测[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(7):1185-1195.
作者姓名:陈莉  李帅  覃雪  张洪梅  张洪杰
作者单位:1. 哈尔滨市气象局, 哈尔滨150028;
2. 黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨150030
基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201314)。
摘    要:东北地区是我国采暖期最长、采暖需求最高的地区。冬季供暖耗能的多少主要取决于室外温度。论文利用1957-2011 年东北地区88 个气象台站的逐日平均气温资料,采用趋势系数、变化速率、Mann-Kendall 突变分析、一元线性回归等方法,对东北全区、北区和南区的采暖气候条件进行了分析。得出:东北全区采暖期平均气温为-8.2℃,54 a 来的变化速率为0.17℃/10 a,升温趋势通过了0.05 显著性检验,在1982-1983 年发生了突变;采暖期天数平均为186 d,变化速率为-2.0 d/10 a,通过了0.001 显著性检验,在1990 年发生了突变;采暖强度平均为4 959℃·d,采暖耗能变化率为-17.7%/10 a,通过了0.001 显著性检验,在1980 年代中期发生了突变。东北地区采暖期平均气温升高1℃,采暖强度将减少210℃·d,采暖耗能将减少4.4%。另外,论文根据前期环流指数构建了采暖强度预测模型。

关 键 词:东北  采暖期平均气温  采暖天数  采暖强度  采暖耗能变化率  气候变化特征  
收稿时间:2013-04-26

Change Characteristics and Prediction of Climatic Conditions of Heating in Northeast China
CHEN Li,LI Shuai,QIN Xue,ZHANG Hong-mei,ZHANG Hong-jie.Change Characteristics and Prediction of Climatic Conditions of Heating in Northeast China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(7):1185-1195.
Authors:CHEN Li  LI Shuai  QIN Xue  ZHANG Hong-mei  ZHANG Hong-jie
Institution:1. Harbin Meteorological Bureau, Harbin 150028, China;
2. Heilongjiang Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China
Abstract:Northeast China is so cold in winter that it is defined severe cool region based on the regulations of"Thermal Design Rules for Civil Building (GB50176-93)". With the highest heating intensity and the longest heating days in China,the energy requirement for heating in Northeast China is the strongest. The amount of energy for heating depends on the air temperature. Analysis of change characteristics of climatic conditions of heating in Northeast China is urgent, because the climate change affects the energy usage. According to the regulation of "Code for Design of Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (GB50019-2003)", a 5-day running mean method is used to determine the start and end date for heating. The degree day method is used to calculate the heating intensity, with the indoor base temperature of 18℃ as a standard according to"Energy Conservation Design Standard for New Heating Residential Buildings (JCJ26-95)". Changing rate of energy consuming for heating is calculated too. Based on the data of daily average temperature of 88 weather stations in Northeast China from 1957 to 2011 and statistics methods of trend coefficient, increasing/decreasing ratio, Mann-Kendall abrupt analysis and a linear regression, this article analyzes change characteristics of the air temperature during the heating period, the heating days and the heating intensity from 1957 to 2011 in Northeast China. Conclusions are as follows. The mean value of average temperature during heating period from 1957 to 2011 is -8.2℃. The average temperature during heating period increases obviously in Northeast China, with the ratio reaching 0.17℃/10 a and its abrupt year is 1982-1983. The mean value of heating days from 1957 to 2011 is 186 d. The heating days decrease obviously in Northeast China, with the ratio reaching -2 d/10 a and its abrupt point is the year of 1990. The mean value of heating intensity from 1957 to 2011 is 4959℃·d. The heating intensity decreases obviously in Northeast China, with the changing ratio of energy consuming for heating reaching -17.7%/10 a and its abrupt year is the mid 1980s. Based on the method of a linear regression, the heating intensity could fall 210℃·d and the changing ratio of energy for heating could decrease by 4.4% when the average temperature during the heating period increases by 1℃. In addition, a forecast model is built by using the circulation index.
Keywords:Northeast China  average temperature during the heating period  heating days  heating intensity  changing rate of energy consuming for heating  change characteristic
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