产业结构调整对山东省碳排放的影响

在全球变暖的背景下，山东作为工业大省，碳排放总量居全国第一。因此，如何通过“转方式、调结构”以控制和减少碳排放是山东省日益紧迫的重大课题。论文采用LMDI分解方法定量分析了1994-2010 年山东省产业结构调整对碳排放的影响，并在此基础上结合LEAP模型预测2030 年之前的产业结构调整对山东碳排放的贡献。得出以下结论：①1994-2010 年产业结构效应为351.39×10⁴ t 标煤，对碳排放增长的贡献度为3.91%；②工业比重上升或下降1 个百分点所对应的CO₂排放量增加或减少78.6×10⁴～83.7×10⁴ t 标煤；③在基准情景和低碳情景下，到2030 年未来产业结构的调整对CO₂ 排放增长的贡献率分别约为-5.3%和-10.4%。这表明，与此前产业结构变动导致碳排放量增加的情形相反，未来产业结构的调整有助于减少碳排放。

The Influence of Adjustment in Industrial Structures on Carbon Emissions in Shandong Province

In the context of global warming, as an industrial province, Shandong possesses the top most total amount of carbon emissions in the country. Therefore, how to control and reduce carbon emissions by transfer the mode and adjust the structure has been the increasingly urgent major issue in Shandong Province. LMDI decomposition method was used for quantitative analysis of the effect of adjustment of industrial structure on 1994-2010 carbon emissions in Shandong Province. On this basis, contribution of adjustment of the structure on carbon emissions before 2030 was predicted combined with LEAP model. There were three conclusions. Firstly, economic growth was the main cause of increasing water pollutant emissions; changes of industrial structure drove in the growth of pollutants emissions, but not the most important factor; technical efficiency was the main reason for reducing pollutants emissions. Industrial structure effect was 3.5139 million tons of standard coal from 1994 to 2010; the contribution to the growth of carbon emissions was 3.91%. Secondly, CO₂ emissions has a certain relationship with the variety of industrial proportion, the proportion of industry increased or decreased one percent, then CO₂ emissions will increase or reduce 786-837 thousand tons of standard coal. Lastly, in the baseline scenario and low-carbon scenarios, the rate of contribution to the growth of the industrial structure adjustment will be about -5.3% and -10.4% respectively. This shows that the adjustment of the industrial structure will reduce carbon emissions, which is contrary to the situation that the changes in the industrial structure increased carbon emissions.