人水系统的自组织演化模拟与实证

人水系统是一个开放的复杂巨系统，研究其自组织演化过程对促进区域人水和谐和可持续发展具有重要意义。论文在辨析人水系统基本内涵的基础上提出了其概念模型，基于自组织理论分析了人水系统的演化具有开放性、涨落、非线性、反馈、不稳定性和支配性等特点。在此基础上借鉴协同学、耗散结构论等将序参量判据和熵判据结合，构建了人水系统的自组织演化模型，并应用到人水矛盾突出的石羊河流域。案例分析表明：石羊河流域人水系统的社会经济、生态环境和资源开发利用三个子系统在2001-2011 年的协同度总体呈“S”型上升趋势，具体演化路径略有不同；人水系统的整体演化以2006 年为涨落点，在政策驱动下，系统不断输入负熵，由混乱无序向协调有序的良性发展方向演化，开始趋向新的稳态，结果验证了模型应用的可行性。

Self-organization Evolution Simulation and Empirical Study of Human-water System

Water resources for domestic, agricultural and industrial use is an increasingly important topic of the human on the planet, and the relationship of water and human has become the hot spot of the current study. Human-water system is an open complex giant system, which contains socio-economic subsystem, eco-environment subsystem and resource subsystem. As one important part of man-earth areal system, its ultimate goal is to achieve the human-water harmony. And the study of its self-organization evolution is of great significance in promoting human and water in harmoneous sustainable development. This study presents the mathematical concept model of human-water system after discriminating its basic connotation. The evolution characteristics of the human-water system are opening, fluctuating, nonlinearity, feedback, instability and domination, which are summarized based on self-organization theory in detail. On this basis, drawing on the experience of synergetics and dissipative structure theory, this study develops self-organization evolution simulation of human-water system applying order parameter criteria and entropy criteria, and puts it in use in Shiyang River Basin. Case analysis shows that, the synergy degree of socio-economic subsystem, eco-environment subsystem and resource subsystem rises in an "S-shaped" pattern in Shiyang River Basin in 2001-2011, and there are slightly different for each subsystem. The evolutions of synergy degree match with the change of socio-economic development and policy planning of Shiyang River Basin. The order degree of human-water system is 0.2 below the level in the years 2001-2005, which indicates the human-water system of Shiyang River Basin is in chaos within a state of entropy production, and the competition between three subsystem is greater than the cooperation. The year 2006 is the fluctuation point of human-water system, the condition changed from chaos to coordinative and orderly, and the whole system began to tend to a new steady state. This transformation is owed to the progressive governance of the local government, which inputs negentropy to the system. Results also show that the self-organization evolution simulation of human-water system is effective and feasible, and provides references for further study.