淮河流域粮食生产与化肥消费时空变化及对水环境影响

以淮河流域172 个县为研究单元,基于1990、1995、2000、2005 和2010 年分县粮食、化肥及2010 年水环境数据,采用ESDA模型、重力模型、回归分析和GIS 空间技术方法,分别对流域粮食生产与化肥消费的空间集聚程度及重心进行测定,在此基础上分析了流域粮食生产与化肥消费的动态时空变化规律、耦合关系及其对流域水环境影响。结果表明：①粮食生产与化肥消费的“高-高”和“低-低”集聚区存在显著空间正相关,空间聚集特征明显,“高-高”类型区主要集中分布在流域下游的苏北平原和皖北平原,“低-低”类型区主要集中分布在流域上游的伏牛山、桐柏山和沂蒙等山区;②重心分析表明,20 a 来粮食生产和化肥消费的重心逐步由流域东北向西南方向移动,分别移动了29.51 km和34.97 km,两者重心之间距离呈现近似“W”的“先减后增再减再增”徘徊特点;③流域粮食生产与化肥消费的“高-高”和“低-低”集聚区在流域空间位置上高度耦合,呈现增减协同的时空演进格局,且两者重心时空演变轨迹具有同向性,空间耦合特征显著;④回归分析表明化肥消费是流域水环境污染的主要贡献因子和污染来源,也表明流域粮食生产过程中环境成本较大,呈外部不经济效应。

The Spatio-temporal Changes of Grain Production and Fertilizer Consumption and Its Impact on Water Environment in the Huaihe River Basin

Taking 172 counties of the Huaihe River Basin as research unit, using each county's grain and fertilizer data in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 and water environment data in 2010, and based on ESDA model, gravity model, regression analysis model and GIS spatial technology method, this article measures degree of spatial concentration and the center of gravity of the watershed grain production and fertilizer consumption respectively, and on this basis, it further analyzes the temporal and spatial dynamic variation and coupled relationship of the basin food production and fertilizer consumption and its impact on the basin water environment. The results show that: 1) The "H-H" and "L-L" gathering areas of grain production and fertilizer consumption show significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and obvious characteristics of spatial aggregation. The "H-H" type areas are mainly distributed in the Northern Jiangsu Plain and the North of Anhui Plain at downstream of the basin. The "L-L" type areas are mainly distributed in the Funiu Mountain, Tongbai Mountain, and Yimeng Mountain at upstream of the basin. 2) The center of gravity analysis shows that the center of gravity of food production and fertilizer consumption moved gradually from the northeast to the southwest of the basin in the past 20 years, moving 29.51 km and 34.97 km respectively. Both distances of the center presents approximately the "W-shaped" pattern, the hovering characteristics of first decreasing and then increasing, further reducing and then increasing. 3) The "H-H" and "L-L" gathering areas of the basin grain production and fertilizer consumption are highly coupled in spatial location, presenting the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of increase and decrease collaboration. Both the evolution trajectory of the centers has the same direction, and the characteristics of spatial coupling are significant. 4) Regression analysis shows that fertilizer consumption is the main contribution factor and pollution source of the basin's environmental pollution, also indicates that the environmental cost in the basin food production process is comparatively large, showing the external diseconomies effect.