工业碳减排绩效及其影响因素动态分解

进入21 世纪以来，中国工业碳排放总量仍在波动中增长。为了考查近10 a 来中国工业碳减排绩效，并定量分析影响工业碳减排的主要因素对碳减排的贡献变化情况，论文通过构建中国工业碳排放数据库并运用“精确”的Laspeyres 分解方法，对中国2001-2010 年36 个工业行业CO₂减排的影响因素进行了动态分解，研究结果表明：①虽然中国工业CO₂排放总量在不断增加，但CO₂排放增长率和工业碳排放强度双双降低，在考察周期内，CO₂排放总量从2001 年 2.89×10⁹ t 增长到2010 年7.16×10⁹ t，工业碳排放量增长率则从2003 年最高值18.86%持续下降至2009 年的5.77%，工业整体碳排放强度由2001 年的29.14 t/104元下降到2010 年的18.12 t/10⁴ 元；②工业经济规模不断增加是工业CO₂排放增加的主导因素，技术进步和结构调整则有效抑制了CO₂的增加，10 a 间规模效应对CO₂排放总量增加的贡献度年均达到191.81%，但是由于受到技术进步效应和结构调整效应的共同作用，10 a 来总效应值年均只有109.15%；③较之技术进步效应，结构调整效应对工业CO₂减排的贡献度更大，结构调整效应累计促进碳减排达2.07× 10⁹ t，而技术进步效应促进减排的总量只有1.14×10⁹ t。论文认为，着力中长期减排政策的制定，以保证技术进步在碳减排中持续发挥作用，同时充分挖掘结构调整对减排作用潜力是中国实现工业碳减排的务实选择。

Industrial Carbon Emission Reduction Performance and Dynamic Decomposition of Its Influencing Factors

Since entering the new century, China's industrial carbon emission is still increasingwith fluctuation. In order to investigate China's industrial carbon emission reduction performanceand change rule of its affecting factors, through building China's industrial carbon emissionsdatabase and the use of Laspeyres index decomposition technique, this paper dynamically decomposes the influencing factors of CO₂ emission of China's 36 industrial sectors in 2001-2010. The results show that: 1) although China's total volume of industrial CO₂ emissions is increasing,the rate of growth and intensity are decreasing. Carbon dioxide emissions increased to7.16×10⁹ t in 2010 from 2.89×10⁹ t in 2001, but the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions decreasedto 5.77% in 2009 from 18.86% in 2003, the carbon intensity decreased to 181.2 thousandtons per hundred million yuan in 2010 from 291.4 thousand tons per hundred million yuanin 2001. 2) Growing scale of industrial economies is the dominant factor of increasing industrial CO₂ emissions; while technological progress and structural adjustment effectively inhibitsthe increase of CO₂. The contribution of economic scale effect to the increasing of CO₂ emissionsreached an average annual rate of 191.81% in the decade, but due to the effect of technologicalprogress and structural adjustment, the function of total effect value only reached an annualrate of 109.15% in 10 years. 3) Compared with technological progress effect, structural adjustmenteffect makes greater contribution to the reduction of CO₂ emissions. The cumulativepromotion carbon reduction of structural adjustment effect is 2.07×10⁹ t, and the amount oftechnological progress effect is 1.14×10⁹ t. This paper proposes that long-term emission reduction policies should be formulated to ensure the continuous function of technical progress, andthe other pragmatic choice is to fully tap the potential effect of structural adjustment on CO₂emissions reduction.