沈阳市经济发展演变与碳排放效应研究

正确认识城市碳排放状况，研究确保城市经济快速发展的碳减排有效措施，对促进城市经济的可持续发展、制定各种环境经济政策、确保环境社会协调发展起到至关重要的作用。论文基于热红外遥感、GIS 和大气扩散模型技术，提高了城市碳排放空间分布的模拟精度。在此基础上，分别采用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）、迪氏对数指标分解法（LMDI）和系统动力学（SD）模型，分析城市经济发展与碳排放之间的耦合关系和演变态势，通过碳排放分解分析研究影响碳排放浓度变化的因素，以及城市三次产业对碳排放的生产效应、结构效应和强度效应，模拟自然发展模式和调控发展模式两种情景下城市经济发展与碳排放的发展演变趋势。研究结果表明：1989—2008 年期间沈阳市碳排放与人均GDP拟合曲线符合N型特征，沈阳市的年均碳排放已经跨过了转折点。经济增长是导致沈阳碳排放增长的主要因素。1999—2010 年沈阳市第二产业碳排放的生产效应最大，三次产业的强度效应对城市碳排放都有抑制作用。2013—2020 年调控发展模式下的城市碳排放呈下降趋势。调控管理在保证经济稳步增长的同时将有利于沈阳市碳排放的有效抑制。

The Research on Economic Development and Carbon Emission Effect of Shenyang

The status of urban carbon emissions should be correctly understood, and the effective measures for decreasing carbon emissions are further researched to ensure fast urban economic development. They play an important role to promote the sustainable development of urban economy, constitute various environmental economic policy and ensure harmonious development of environment and society. In this paper, based on thermal infrared remote sensing, GIS, and atmospheric diffuse model technology, the simulation precision of spatial distribution of urban carbon emissions was improved. Based on this, Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC), Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), and System Dynamics (SD) model were separately adopted. The coupling relationship and evolvement trend were analyzed between urban economic development and carbon emissions. The factors making carbon emission concentration change and production effect, structure effect, and intensity effect of carbon emission by city three industries were researched and analyzed through decomposing carbon emissions. Development and evolvement trend between urban economic development and carbon emissions was simulated under two conditions of natural development model and regulation development model. Research result showed: Shenyang carbon emission concentration and per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) fitting curve conformed N type feature during 1989-2008, but the curve presented a decreasing trend after 2008. Shenyang annual carbon emission concentration has already exceeded the turning point. Economic growth was the main factor inducing Shenyang carbon emission concentration raise. The production effect of carbon emission of Shenyang second industry was the biggest during 1999-2010. The intensity effect of three industries has shown the restraining function towards city carbon emission concentration. GDP gross under regulation development model is higher than under natural development model during the period of 2012-2020. Shenyang carbon emission concentration under regulation development model shows a decreasing trend, and urban carbon emission concentration under natural development model is gradually rising during 2013-2020. Regulation management can ensure economy steadily increasing, at the same time it will be availble to restrain Shenyang carbon emission effectively.