中国经济增长与环境污染关系的再检验——基于全国省级数据的面板协整分析

运用面板协整工具和动态最小二乘法（DOLS）对我国1985-2007年间30个省级行政区环境污染变量与经济增长变量的关系进行了实证检验，与以往研究相比，该方法的检验结果具有更高的势值（power）和稳健性。结果显示我国工业废气污染、工业废水污染和工业固体废弃物污染变量与经济变量之间存在长期协整关系，且变量间均呈现出显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)关系，而EKC转折点并没有出现在过低的水平上。目前我国仍面临巨大的环境压力，在减排方面需要花费巨大的经济成本，中国在应对环境变化领域将面临巨大的挑战，必须深入探索经济增长方式转变路径，努力施行减物质化的生态经济发展模式。

The Re-estimation of Relationship Between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in China: A Panel Co-integration Analysis

The panel unit root test, co-integration test and dynamic OLS developed recently have the advantages of higher power and more robust conclusion, compared to the traditional time series methods. Employing these panel methods, we re-estimate the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution, with findings revealing a long-equilibrium relation between per capita GDP and the emissions of industrial waste gas, industrial waste water and industrial solid wastes respectively. The relationships between all the three pollutants and economic growth take on inverted-U Environmental Kuznets Curves, the turning points in these inverted U-shaped curves calculated with the parameters are 3.435×10~4 yuan, 6.702×10~4 yuan and 2.261×10~4 yuan respectively, varying from former researches. At present China has a great environmental pressure and will face a tremendous challenge for addressing environmental change issues, we should try to explore important ways to change the economic growth pattern deeply and carry out dematerializing ecological economic development mode.