基于分区的多目的地TCM模型及其在游憩资源价值评估中的应用——以九寨沟自然保护区为例

作为评估户外游憩价值的经典方法,旅行费用法穴TCM雪主要存在3种基本模型,即分区旅行费用法穴ZTCM雪、个人旅行费用法穴ITCM雪和随机效用法穴RUM雪。尽管这3种模型在理论和实践上都已相当成熟,却均无非常完善的方法来解决广为存在的多目的地环程旅行问题,致使该问题成为TCM研究应用中的难点和热点。论文根据九寨沟的实际情况,首次提出应用基于分区的多目的地TCM模型穴MZTC雪来评估九寨沟的游憩价值,得到2002年九寨沟自然保护区的总游憩价值为15.61×108元,人均1246.10元;其中消费者剩余为4.71×108元,人均375.92元,与国外最新游憩价值综述研究的结果非常接近。

Using a multiple-destination-based zonal travel cost method to evaluate the recreational benefits of Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve

TCM (travel cost method) is one of the classic methods to value the recreational benefits of outdoor recreational resources.Existing TCM include three basic models:ZTCM (Zonal TCM),ITCM (Individual TCM) and RUM (Random Utility Method).Although these three models have rather matured,none of them could offer perfect solutions to the widely existing multiple destination problem,which makes it a difficulty and hotspot in TCM studies.Analysts have approached this problem in a few different ways,yet multiple destination trips,especially long vacation trips,remain difficult to work into conventional models in a convincing way. Due to the the biforked structure of travel costs of Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve,the paper forwards a new method-MZTC (multiple-destination-based zonal travel cost method) which combines Mendelsohn et al.'s(1992) "portfolio of sites"model and travel cost separation methods,to value the recreational benefits of Jiuzhaigou in 2002.In this analysis,individuals are viewed as selecting a "portfolio of sites" for a trip,and each portfolio is viewed as a separate commodity with its own demand equation.Jiuzhaigou's share of travel cost in each portfolio is computed according to the entrance fee,and its share of consumer surplus calculated.The mean consumer surplus is 37.77,93.30,618.36 and 733.66 yuan per person respectively for'nearby-Jiuzhaigou','nearby-Jiuzhaigou &; Huanglong','distant-Jiuzhaigou &; Huanglong' and 'distant-Jiuzhaigou, Huanglong, Ermeishan and Leshan' subsamples.It can be seen that distance exerts an extraordinarily important effect on the estimates,and that for subsamples with similar distances,the consumer surplus goes up with the increase of the destinations in the'portfolio of sites'and decrease of Jiuzhaigou's comparative share of trip cost in each portfolio.Then all the shares of consumer surplus are added up,with an outcome of 471 million yuan for total tourists,or 375.92 yuan per person,which is rather similar to the mean sight-seeing value of Rosenberger and Loomis' (2001) up-to-date review on outdoor recreation valuations in America and Canada.The total value is then further calculated plus actual travel costs,with an outcome of 1 246.10 yuan per person.