中国水土资源态势与可持续食物安全

21世纪前期是中国工业化、城市化迅速推进的重要时期,也是中国走向国际贸易一体化和进入社会经济持续发展的关键时期。未来人口持续增长与消费水平的提高、工业化与城市化进程的加快、全球贸易一体化格局的形成、国内体制和制度的转型,使中国人地矛盾更趋尖锐、市场竞争空前激烈,这无疑对中国农业生产的资源基础和农产品的供需平衡产生巨大影响,进而影响到中国食物安全。论文重点分析了我国水土资源态势及其对可持续食物安全的影响,指出水土资源总量短缺及其空间上的不匹配状况将直接影响着中国可持续食物安全,到2030年中国粮食缺口可能在760×108kg左右;实现中国可持续食物安全应立足21世纪中国农业与农村经济的可持续发展,重点选择产业化、生态化、国际化和地区专业化的发展方向与模式,并须在优化制度环境、完善保障体系和突破结构制约等几个方面进行深化改革与创新。

Situation of land-water resources and analysis of sustainable food security in China

The early stage of the21st century will be the important time that China will witness rapid promotion of industrialization and urbanization and move towards higher degree.It is also a crucial period that China integrates into the world economy and enters the steady and continuous stage of social and economic development.However,such factors as trending towards constant growth of population,the speeding process of industrialization and urbanization,the formation of integration pattern of global trade,the transition of civil system and institution will make human-land conflict more intense,market competition unprecedented severe in China,which,undoubt-edly,have tremendous effect on the resource base of China's agricultural production and the sup-ply-demand balance of agricultural products,so,China's food security will be faced with chal-lenge.Based on the situation analysis of the water-land resources and its influence on food secu-rity in China,this paper puts forward that the shortage of water-land quantity and deficient matching between their distribution will affect directly on Chinese food security,and the quantity of food shortage will reach760×10 8 kg.However,the realization of the objectives of Chinese food security must rest on sustainable development of China's agriculture and rural economy in the21st century,so the primary strategy ensuring China's sustainable food security is to select the developing orientation and model with industrialization,ecologicalization,internationalization and localization as character in order to establish a domestic sustainable agriculture and rural eco-nomic system,and lay stress on optimizing the institutional environment,consummating the guar-anteeing system and breaking through the structural constraints to further reform and innovation.