中国土地利用规划的指标分配逻辑：兼论对国土空间规划的启示

用地指标是我国空间规划实施和国土空间管制的关键政策工具。研究收集省级土地利用总体规划（2006—2020年）新增建设用地指标数据,利用多层线性模型,分析了用地指标分配的偏好及其影响因素,并探讨了省级和市级因素对指标分配的交互作用机制。结果表明： （1）用地指标分配策略具有明显的地区差异性,绝对量呈现东高西低的格局,而相对量呈现西部和东南高、中部和东北低的空间特征;（2）用地指标分配模式主要受经济发展需求驱动,缺乏对水土等资源环境限制性因素的考虑;（3）快速发展期的省倾向于集中分配策略,发展水平较高的省则更为均衡。因此,需坚守资源环境底线,配合有效的经济激励政策,实施差别化的用地指标管理策略。

The distribution logic of land quotas in China's land use planning: Implications for territorial spatial planning

Top-down allocation of land quota is a key tool in China's implementation of spatial planning and regulation of territorial space. Based on land quota data of provincial land use plan (2006-2020), this study used a hierarchical linear model to analyze the strategy, preference, and influencing factors of incremental construction land quota allocated by provincial governments to prefecture-level administrative units and discussed the interaction of provincial and prefecture-level factors. The results showed that the allocation strategy and preference of land quota in provincial land use plan had obvious regional differences. The absolute amount of land quotas was high in the east and low in the west, but the relative amount of land quotas was high in the west and southeast, while low in the central and northeast parts. The existing quota distribution mode adopted by provincial governments was found to be driven primarily by the demand for economic development, which did not pay sufficient attention to the constraints of the carrying capacity of land, water, and other types of resources. Additionally, provinces undergoing a rapid growth tend to adopt a centralized allocation strategy, while those at high development levels often have a more balanced scheme of land allocation. Therefore, it is necessary to adhere to the bottom line of resources and environment, cooperate with effective economic incentive policies, and implement regionally differentiated strategies in land quota allocation and land management.