国际粮食贸易影响下东北黑土地生产压力变化与保护策略

黑土地是重要的农产品生产基地之一,承担着保障国家粮食安全和维护农业生态安全的重要责任,保护好黑土地对促进我国农业可持续发展至关重要。测算与分析2000—2020年东北黑土地粮食生产耕地压力的变化情况,研究国际贸易对东北黑土地粮食生产的耕地压力的影响,利用国际市场占有率指数和贸易竞争优势指数分析东北黑土地农产品在国内及国际两个市场的竞争优势。结果表明：近20年来东北黑土地粮食生产的耕地压力基本处于安全压力区并呈逐步下降的趋势,玉米、大豆、稻谷三种主要作物生产的耕地压力分别从2000年的1.94、1.09和0.63下降至2020年的0.69、0.26和0.54。国际粮食贸易对黑土地粮食生产耕地压力减缓的作用显著且呈现出逐年上升的趋势,2020年对黑土地粮食生产耕地压力减缓的贡献率达26.22%,其中对大豆生产的耕地压力减缓的贡献率达511.48%。农产品贸易优势度分析结果显示,东北黑土地农产品在国内市场具有明显的贸易竞争优势,但在国际贸易中的竞争优势不明显。为此,提出了国际贸易粮食贸易变化背景下黑土地保护的若干建议,为东北黑土地保护及其粮食产能保障相关决策提供参考。

Research on changes in grain production pressure and protection strategies in the black soil region of Northeast China under the influence of international grain trade

As an important agricultural production area, black soil region bears the important responsibility of ensuring national food security and maintaining agricultural ecological security. Protecting black soil is crucial to promoting sustainable agricultural development. This paper analyzes the changes of cultivated black soil pressure of grain production in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020, studies the impact of international trade on cultivated land pressure for grain production in the study area, and analyzes the competitive advantage of the agricultural products of the black soil region of Northeast China in domestic and international markets by using international market share index and trade competitive advantage index. Results show that in the past 20 years, the cultivated land pressure of grain production in the black soil region of Northeast China is basically at the safety level and presents a gradual downward trend. The cultivated land pressure of corn, soybean and rice decreased from 1.94, 1.09 and 0.63 in 2000 to 0.69, 0.26 and 0.54 in 2020, respectively. International grain trade plays a significant role in alleviating the pressure on cultivated soil for grain production and shows an increasing trend year by year. In 2020, the contribution rate to the mitigation of cultivated land pressure for grain production is 26.22%, of which the contribution rate to the mitigation of cultivated land pressure for soybean production is up to 511.48%. The results of the analysis of the agricultural product trade advantage degree show that agricultural products have obvious trade competitive advantages in the domestic market, but the competitive advantage in international trade is not obvious. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the protection of black soil under the background of changes in international grain trade, which provides a reference for the decision-making of black soil protection in Northeast China and the guarantee of grain production capacity.