基于要素流动的城镇建设用地配置方法框架探讨

现有城镇建设用地配置主要遵循空间开发导向，利用静态数据和用地分配标准、评估及预测模型开展，存在一定的“区域偏好”和“规模求大”现象。在强调生态文明建设和高质量发展的新时期，国土空间规划战略实施要求城镇建设用地配置方法需要及时革新。关注到信息或智能技术深度影响下未来城镇场所空间将转变为流动空间这一必然趋势，不同尺度生产、生活及生态要素时空流动与分配将是城镇建设用地科学配置的关键。因此，利用多源要素流大数据和多学科分析方法，试图从城镇空间发展水平评价、城镇要素流动网络时空模拟与用地分配、城镇要素功能区识别与开发边界划定、城镇建设用地配置效果动态评估4个方面，建立基于要素流动的城镇建设用地配置方法框架。结果表明：（1）城镇空间发展水平评价需要综合考虑城镇对区域现状要素控制、吸引及溢出的能力，并从空间发展规模、活力及品质三个层面构建评价指标体系；（2）在城镇建设用地指标区域分配过程中注重利用网络优化模型和社会网络分析方法刻画区域要素流动规律，并通过时空耦合模型找出不同等级和类型“空间发展水平—要素控制力”组合的城镇；（3）城镇未来扩展方向和边界形态是由内部各类要素流动变化与功能空间布局的供需时空匹配情况决定的，需要利用时空耦合、引力、CA及多智能体等模型识别要素功能影响区和流动偏好；（4）城镇建设用地配置效果评估指标需要体现生态文明、高质量、智慧治理及一体化等未来城镇发展要求和趋势。这些研究结果可以为国土空间规划城镇开发边界划定和实施提供参考。

Discussion on urban construction land allocation based on element flow

The existing urban construction land allocation mainly follows the guidance of spatial development, which is carried out by using static data and land allocation standards, evaluation and prediction models. There are some phenomena of "regional preference" and "seeking large scale". In the new era of emphasizing the construction of ecological civilization and high-quality development, the implementation of territory spatial planning strategy requires that the allocation method of urban construction land needs to be innovated in time. This project focuses on the inevitable trend that the urban place space will be transformed into the urban flow space under the deep influence of information or intelligent technology in the future, and considers that the spatiotemporal flow and distribution of production, life and ecological elements of different scales will be the key to the scientific allocation of urban construction land. Therefore, the project uses multi-source big data of element flow and multi-disciplinary analysis methods, trying to establish a new method framework from four aspects: evaluation of urban spatial development level, spatio-temporal simulation of urban element flow network and land allocation, identification of urban element functional area and delimitation of development boundary, and dynamic evaluation of urban construction land allocation effect. Firstly, it is found that the evaluation of urban spatial development level needs to comprehensively consider the ability of cities to control, attract and overflow the current regional elements, and construct the evaluation index system from three aspects of spatial development scale, vitality and quality. Secondly, in the process of regional distribution of urban construction land index, we pay attention to using network optimization model and social network analysis method to describe the flow law of regional elements, and find out the cities with different levels and types of combination of "spatial development level and element control" through time-space coupling model. Thirdly, the future expansion direction and boundary shape of cities are determined by the spatiotemporal matching of supply and demand between the flow changes of various internal elements and the functional space layout. It is necessary to identify the functional influence area and flow preference of elements by using models of spatiotemporal coupling, gravity, cellular automata and agent-based system. Finally, the evaluation index of urban construction land allocation effect needs to reflect the requirements and trends of future urban development, such as ecological civilization, high quality, smart governance and integration. These research results can provide reference for the delimitation and implementation of urban development boundary in territory spatial planning.