资源型城市转型绩效特征及其碳减排效应

基于中国资源型城市2003—2018年面板数据综合测度城市转型绩效，采用空间马尔科夫链、空间计量模型和空间双重差分模型，探究资源型城市转型绩效特征及其对碳排放的影响。结果表明：（1）资源型城市转型绩效逐渐提升，与此对应的是区域差异呈波动上升趋势，且四种类型资源型城市之间区域差异主要来源于地区内差异，成熟型城市贡献最大；资源型城市转型绩效存在明显的空间分异性，发展格局由以跨越区为核心的“多点式”零星分布向先行区为核心的“组团式”聚集形态演变。（2）资源型城市转型绩效在不同时期存在状态转移的可能性，具有滞后区、起步区、跨越区和先行区4个趋同俱乐部特征，空间马尔科夫链表明转移趋势存在明显空间关联性，状态转移通常出现在相邻等级之间，较少有“跳跃式”转移现象，具有长期性和持续性特征。（3）资源型城市转型具有显著碳减排效应，而且这种效应存在不同资源类型、不同发展阶段和不同空间区位的异质性特征，经济产业转型、社会生活转型和生态环境转型是发挥碳减排效应的重要因素；进一步的政策冲击分析表明，产业转型升级示范区和高新技术产业开发区的设立对城市碳减排具有积极的政策效应。

Transformation performance characteristics of resource-based cities and their carbon emission reduction effects

Based on the panel data of China's resource-based cities from 2003 to 2018, this paper comprehensively measures the performance of urban transformation, and uses spatial Markov chain, spatial econometric model and spatial double difference model to explore the performance characteristics of resource-based cities' transformation and its impact on carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) The transformation performance of resource-based cities is increasing year by year, which corresponds to the fluctuating upward trend of regional differences, and the regional differences between the four types of resource-based cities mainly come from regional differences, and mature cities contribute the most; There are obvious spatial differences in the transformation performance of resource-based cities, and the development pattern has evolved from the "multi-point" sporadic distribution with the spanning area as the core to the "cluster" aggregation with the leading area as the core. (2) The transformation performance of resource-based cities has the possibility of state transfer in different periods, which has the characteristics of four convergence clubs: lagging area, starting area, spanning area and leading area. Spatial Markov chain shows that the transfer trend has obvious spatial relevance. State transfer usually occurs between adjacent levels, with less "jumping" transfer phenomenon, and has long-term and sustainable characteristics. (3) The transformation of resource-based cities has significant carbon emission reduction effect, and this effect has the heterogeneity characteristics of different resource types, different development stages and different spatial locations. Economic and industrial transformation, social life transformation and ecological environment transformation are important factors to play the role of carbon emission reduction. Further policy impact analysis shows that the establishment of industrial transformation and upgrading demonstration zones and high-tech industrial development zones has a positive policy effect on urban carbon emission reduction.