中国北方沙漠化地区生态重建的环境政策研究——基于Bioe-conomic Model

论文以内蒙古沙漠化地区为例,运用Bioe-conom ic M odel,比较自由放牧与耕垦、禁牧与禁垦、控制放牧规模与禁垦的土地利用政策情景下,引进舍饲养牛技术与信贷服务和增加非农就业机会对农户土地利用决策及其家庭收入的影响,据此探讨中国北方地区沙漠化发展的人文驱动机制以及生态重建的环境政策。结果表明:实施控制放牧规模与禁垦的环境政策,同时引进舍饲养牛技术能够有效地促进生态重建并提高农户收入;引进舍饲养牛技术需要启动基金,提供信贷服务和增加非农就业机会是贫困农户引进该技术的前提。因此,迫切需要调整宏观环境政策,提高农业集约化经营水平和城乡联系力度,从而提高农户家庭收入、减轻农民对环境的依赖性和促进农村的可持续发展。

Scenario Analysis of Environmental Policy for Combating Desertification in Northern China: A Bio-economic Model Approach

Poverty alleviation and rangeland conservation are pressing issues facing sustainable development of Northwest China.A linear Bio-economic Model is introduced in this paper to an-alyze the farmer households'land use decision,their income change and driving forces under different land use regulation and other environmental policy scenarios in an agro-pastoral area of Inner Mongolia,China.The simulation results show that introducing sedentary beef cattle livesto-ck,improving credit provision and increasing off-farm employment opportunities might generate a significant increase of household income under alternative land use policy.Land use regulation is needed to conserve local rangeland ecosystem,and keeping grazing pressure at reasonable level and forbidding reclamation is a rational land use policy.To offset decrease of farmers'income with implementing land use regulation,it is absolutely necessary to introduce new technologies and to intensify farming activities.For poor households,they may increase 49%-52% of income by introducing sedentary beef cattle livestock under alternative land use policy scenario.Impro-vement of credit provision is an important subject factor for poor farmers to adopt sedentary beef cattle technologies.Poor households which introduced sedentary beef cattle livestock may increase 51%-416% of income if credit provision to poor farmers was improved.Furthermore,increase in off-farm employment opportunity has positive effect on urban-rural interaction,which may offset the decrease of households'income due to implementation of land use regulation.While regulation to keep grazing pressure at 1 sheep unit/ha was introduced,households' income will decrease 39%-65% compared to present land use policy.Households' income will reach 78%-93% of the present level under the land use regulation if there is an increase in off-farm employment opportunities.Based on the results,it may be concluded that intensification of agriculture and increasing urban-rural interaction is essential for restoration of deteriorated ecosystem and alleviation of poverty in ecological fragile area in northern China.That is to say,environmental policy should be combined with rural development policy,which includes prom-oting new technologies extension,improving credit service and increasing off-farm employment opportunities.