我国化肥施用量持续增长的原因分解及趋势预测

我国化肥大量使用在提高农业生产的同时也对环境产生了严重的负面影响。目前国内外学术界对我国化肥施用量持续增长的原因以及未来我国化肥使用的发展趋势还存在较大争议。论文利用过去20 a 间我国化肥施用量的相关数据, 对化肥施用量持续增长的成因进行了分解。研究结果表明:化肥使用强度的增长是我国化肥施用总量增长的主因, 但从2007 年以来, 使用强度的贡献不断下降, 播种面积调整的贡献有所提高。根据分解结果并利用“中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统”(CHINAGRO) 预测了2020 年全国和各省化肥使用量情况。模型分析结果表明如果不采取措施, 我国未来化肥的使用总量和单位播种面积化肥施用量将依然呈现增长趋势, 且单位面积化肥用量将长期高于225 kg/hm²的国际上限标准。预计到2020年我国化肥总施用量和单位播种面积化肥施用量比2010 年分别提高2%和4.3%。东部地区单位播种面积化肥施用量较高, 2020 年广东、福建、天津、北京等省(市) 化肥单位面积施用量将接近或超过600 kg/hm², 这将对当地环境造成巨大压力。

Decomposition of Factors Contributed to the Increase of China’s Chemical Fertilizer Use and Projections for Future Fertilizer Use in China

Intensive use of chemical fertilizer has largely contributed to the increase of China's agricultural production in the last 30 years, while in the same time, the excessive use of chemical fertilizer has also led to serious negative impacts on environment. There is a lot of debate on what causes continuous growth of fertilizer use in China and what would be the trend of future fertilizer use in China. Using the official statistical data of fertilizer use, this paper decomposed the factors that led to the increase of chemical fertilizer in China in the past 20 years. The results showed that the growth of fertilizer intensity is the major contributor to the overall growth of fertilizer use. But since 2007, the contribution from fertilizer intensity has decreased, while the expansion of cultivated area has begun to play a big role. On the basis of decomposition results and CHINAGRO model, this paper projects the national and provincial levels of fertilizer use in 2020. The results showed that in the next 10 years, China's total fertilizer use and per unit sown area of fertilizer use will continue to increase, and keep higher than the international limited standard which is 225 kg/hm² in a long period. The total fertilizer use and per hectare of cultivated land fertilizer usage in 2020 are expected to increase by 2% and 4.3% respectively compared with 2010. Per hectare of fertilizer use in Guangdong, Fujian, Tianjin and Beijing will be close to or more than 600 kg/hm² in 2020, which will exert great pressures on environment of these regions.