湿润区湖泊流域水资源可持续发展评价方法

社会经济发展导致湖泊富营养化、水生态系统破坏和水资源开发失衡,最终反馈人类且制约着社会经济持续发展。鉴于此,论文在对湿润区湖泊流域系统分析的基础上,提出了湿润区湖泊流域水资源可持续发展的4个关键点与4个层次,并采用DPSIR框架对应地确定了基本原则和“3类2方面25指标”的指标体系,进而建立了模糊模式识别评价模型。该方法用于定量评价四川邛海流域及其3个子区域的2001年、2005年、2010年和2015年的水资源可持续发展程度。案例结果表明:在同区域不同时期,各区域的湖泊流域水资源可持续发展程度总体趋势都是逐步上升,识别出来的相对重要的指标为富营养化程度/水质、森林覆盖率、地下水开采程度、污水处理率和农业灌溉水系数;在同期不同区域呈现出邛海流域≥西昌>昭觉>喜德的状况,且之间的差异随时间逐步扩大,对于此类评价,其相对重要的指标集中在富营养化程度/水质、森林覆盖率、地下水开采程度、水土流失面积比例、人口密度和人民健康程度。

Assessment Method of Sustainable Water Resources Development of Wet Lake Basin

Socioeconomic development has led to lacustrine eutrophication,destroy of aquatic ecosystems and unbalance of water resource exploitation,consequently resulting in restriction on social and economic development.Based on systematic analysis of the wet lake basin(i.e.lake basin in humid region),this paper firstly presented four key points and four hierarchies of sustainable water resource development of wet lake basin(SWRDWLB).Also,deriving from the DPSIR Model,an indicator framework including three groups,two aspects and 25 indicators was founded.Secondly,the above framework including basic criteria,indicator system and Fuzzy Pattern Recognition model(FPR) was proposed in this study.The proposed assessment method was applied to a case study of the Lake Qionghai Basin and its three subregions in 2001,2005,2010 and 2015.In temporal scale,the result indicates that the trend of different regions' SWRDWLB was stepwise increasing and the relatively important indicators were in the order of eutrophication/ water quality index,forest coverage rate,groundwater exploitation rate,wastewater treatment percentage,and agricultural irrigation coefficient;in spatial scale,in which the region with the greatest degree of SWRDWLB was entire Lake Qionghai basin,then Xichang and Zhaojue,and the lowest was Xide,besides,the discrepancy of degree between each region was expanded in 2010 and 2015,and the relatively important indicators were in the order of eutrophication/water quality index,forest coverage rate,groundwater exploitation rate,water and soil erosion rate,population density and human health degree.