中国能源消费增长的分解——基于投入产出方法

能源是当前中国快速工业化和城市化进程中面临的重要问题,分析其消费增长各个环节的能耗效应是制定节能措施的基础。论文利用投入产出表将1990～1995、1997～2002年中国能源消费增长分解为中间需求效应、技术效应和最终需求效应。研究结果表明,技术效应是减少能源消费的关键因素,在1997～2002年间,技术效应的作用更加明显。中间需求效应与技术效应具有明显的负相关性,有可能通过替代效应对技术效应做出反应,因此,行业之间全面的技术进步很重要,尤其是对那些中间需求调整敏感的行业而言。从单个行业来看,对耗能大户和最终需求量增加快的行业应重点加强技术进步。此外,最终需求效应与国际贸易结构密不可分,应该依据产品附加值和产品能耗对进出口结构进行调整以减少能源消费。

The Decomposition of Energy Consumption Growth in China: Based on Input-output Model

China is facing a huge energy consumption growth in its rapid industrialization and urbanization process.So it is important to identify energy consumption links for good policy-making.The paper uses input-output table to decompose the energy consumption growth in China from 1990 to 2002.The energy consumption growth is decomposed into three parts:technological effect,intermediate demand effect and final demand effect.The result indicates that the technological effect is the key factor for energy consumption decrease,and it is more obvious in 1997-2002 than in 1990-1995.The differences of the technological advancement on the aspect of energy consumption among industries are obviously reflected in the intermediate demand effect.The intermediate demand effect is negative correlated with technological effect.So it seems necessary to put technological advancement into effect in every industry,especially industries which are sensitive to the adjustment of intermediate demand.Industries that consume much energy or increase demand quickly should strengthen technological advancement.Final demand effect has close relationship with international trade structure,so it is necessary to consider value added and energy consumption per product simultaneously.