上海都市农业可持续发展的定量综合评价

在借鉴国内外已有相关研究成果的基础上,构建了一套能凸显都市农业特色的可持续发展评价指标体系,选用以层次分析法与信息熵法相结合确定指标权重为核心的数学模型与方法,从时间尺度上对1993年上海自开展都市农业实践以来的都市农业可持续发展进行定量综合评价。结果表明:①人口子系统已逐步成为阻碍都市农业可持续发展的主要因素之一,经济子系统逐渐成为都市农业可持续发展的主要贡献因子,社会子系统对都市农业可持续发展的促进作用越来越大,农地资源短缺且持续减少,制约着都市农业可持续发展能力的提高,农业生产自身污染负荷较重,影响着都市农业可持续发展能力的全面提升;②都市农业可持续发展的R-D综合指数不高,下降趋势明显,都市农业可持续发展的资源压力较大且持续增加,E-D综合指数较低,变化幅度不大,都市农业可持续发展的环境压力大但趋向稳定;③可持续发展综合评价指数经过前期波浪式增减后持续稳步攀升,都市农业可持续发展能力增强态势明显。

The Quantitative & Comprehensive Appraisal of Urban Agricultural Sustainable Development in Shanghai

Based on the existing research achievements at home and abroad, the author built a set of evaluation index system that can highlight the characteristics of urban agricultural sustainable development, and used the method of combination analytic hierarchy process and information entropy method as a core method to determine the index weight, made a quantitative &; comprehensive appraisal of urban agricultural sustainable development in Shanghai from the time-series after 1993. The result showed: 1)The population subsystem became a main obstructive factor of urban agricultural sustainable development step by step; the economic subsystem became main contributing factor of urban agricultural sustainable development little by little; the social subsystem was more and more important to promote capability of urban agricultural sustainable development; the amount of cultivated land resources became shortage and continued to decrease, restricting the improvement of capability of urban agricultural sustainable development; heavy load of self-pollution of agricultural production took the negative effects on the overall upgrade of urban agricultural sustainable development capability. 2)The R-D comprehensive index value of urban agricultural sustainable development was not high and declined significantly, its average value was 1.9090 during the period 1993 to 2006, the R-D comprehensive index value decreased by 6.00% per annum from 2.5336 in 1993 to 0.5541 in 2006, resources pressure of urban agricultural sustainable development was greater and continued to increase; the E-D comprehensive index value of urban agricultural sustainable development was smaller and changed little, basically maintained at 1.0000 around most of the years, environmental pressure of urban agricultural sustainable development was great, but tended to be stable. 3)The comprehensive evaluation index value of urban agricultural sustainable development was in the sustainable and steady climb after the pre-wave-like changes, the increasing trend of urban agricultural sustainable development capability was significant.