LPG港口的定量风险分析

为更科学合理地对低温LPG港口、码头进行安全风险分析,对工程实例采用定量风险评估(QRA)、事故后果模拟方法,研究了低温LPG码头的风险,给出了低温LPG码头个人风险曲线。对比了低温LPG码头和常温LPG码头的事故后果影响范围。结果显示,码头低温LPG泄漏后的危害距离是常温LPG泄漏后危害距离的2.7倍以上,低温LPG码头的安全风险高于常温LPG码头的安全风险;低温LPG码头泄漏事故可能影响到邻近码头的安全。提出了降低风险的关键安全对策措施,可有效降低风险约1个数量级。定量风险分析工作是JTS 158—2019《油气化工码头设计防火规范》等标准规范的有益补充,可为LPG码头选址、总平面布置、工艺安全、泄漏事故应急预案提供参考。

Quantitative Risk Analysis of LPG Port

In order to analyze the safety risk of low-temperature LPG port and wharf more scientifically and reasonably,the quantitative risk assessment(QRA)and accident consequence simulation method were used to study the risk of low-temperature LPG terminal,and the personal risk curve of LPG terminal was given.The influence range of accident consequence of low temperature LPG terminal and normal temperature LPG terminal was compared.The results showed that the hazard distance of low temperature LPG terminal was more than 2.7 times of that of normal temperature LPG.The safety risk of low temperature LPG terminal was higher than that of normal temperature LPG terminal.The leakage accident of low temperature LPG terminal may affected the safety of adjacent terminals.Key safety measures to reduce the risk were put forward,which can effectively reduce the risk by about one order of magnitude.Quantitative risk analysis was a useful supplement to the“code for fire protection design of oil and gas chemical terminals”(JTS 158-2019),which can provide reference for site selection,general layout,process safety and emergency plan for leakage accidents of LPG terminals.