天津地区相对海平面变化最新进展及发展趋势分析

相对海平面上升是一个缓慢、渐进过程,但长期的积累可以使得上升幅度相当可观,从而加剧风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、海水入侵和咸潮等灾害致灾程度。基于验潮位监测和卫星观测结果显示,全球海平面在20世纪中期平均上升1.5~2.0 mm/a,而近30年中国沿海海平面上升速率为2.6~2.7 mm/a,高于全球平均值。渤海湾天津地区由于地面沉降显著,而导致相对海平面大幅度上升。滨海地区地面沉降速率在未来50至100年内可能会稳定在1.0~2.0 cm/a范围,结合目前海平面上升速率2.7 mm/a,总的相对海平面上升速率处于12.7~22.7 mm/a范围。由此估计,到2050年,天津地区相对海平面将比2012年高出48.3~86.3 cm,而到2100年,将比2012年高出111.8~199.8 cm。

Analysis of the Latest Development and Tendency of Relative Sea-Level Change in Tianjin, China

Sea-level rise is slow and gradual, but as the time goes on, this progress will become more and more significant, and then this trend intensifies the storm surge, coastal erosion, seawater intrusion and saline tide disaster. Data obtained from the tide-gauge station and satellite observation show that global sea level rose at about 1.5 to 2.0 mm/a in the mid-20th century; in the past 30 years, China''s coastal sea-level rise rate was 2.6 to 2.7 mm/a, higher than the global average. Land subsidence of the Bohai Bay at Tianjin was so significant that led to a considerable sea level rise. In the next 50~100 years land subsidence rate of the Tianjin coastal area may stay in 1.0 to 2.0 cm/a range, and the total sea-level rise rate is estimated to be 12.7 to 22.7 mm/a according to the current sea level rise rate of 2.7 mm/a. Therefore, it is expected that the relative sea level in Tianjin will be 48.3 cm to 86.3 cm higher in 2050 than in 2012, and up to 111.8 cm to 199.8 cm higher in 2100 than those in 2012.