山地城市灾害系统模糊风险评价

灾害风险是当前灾害研究的热点和核心之一。从灾害系统整体角度,厘定区域灾害系统风险,明晰灾害系统风险要素构成及其作用机制,对于科学指导区域综合防灾减灾具有重要意义。在山地城市灾害系统研究的基础上,基于"R=H×E×S/C"的灾害系统模糊风险概念模型,构建了反映山地城市灾害系统"致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、灾损敏感性和防灾减灾能力"四个方面的"山地城市灾害系统模糊风险评价指标体系";提出了对山地城市灾害系统模糊风险进行定量评价与排序的"综合赋权(AHP-EVM)"二级模糊综合评判模型。在上述研究基础上,以重庆市38个区县作为研究对象,对理论模型进行了实证研究,并从整体上初步阐明和解释了山地城市(重庆市)38个区县的灾害系统模糊风险等级及成因。研究得出以下结论:(1)基于"综合赋权"模糊综合评判的"山地城市灾害系统模糊风险"评价结果科学、可靠,能够从整体反映山地城市灾害系统模糊风险水平及其构成。经过与灾情数据对比、专家评判,本研究所得评价结果通过验证,且与"模糊物元评价"所得结果基本一致。(2)重庆市灾害系统模糊风险整体水平居中。其中,渝中区、江北区,渝东北的城口县、奉节县以及渝东南的酉阳县,灾害系统风险等级高,各类灾害发生及造成损失的可能性较大,是未来防灾减灾工作的重点。

Fuzzy Risk Assessment of Mountainous urban Disaster system

Disaster risk is one of the core topics in the current disaster research. It is of great significance for regional integrated disaster prevention to quantify the risk, clarify risk elements and its mechanism.On the basis of research in mountainous urban disaster system,conceptional model of disaster system fuzzy risk proposed as "R=H×E×S/C", a preliminary"assessment index system of mountainous urban disaster system fuzzy risk" was established, in order to reflect elements of the risk:hazard,vulnerability,exposure,sensitivity and disaster coping capacity in each unit respectively;comprehensive empowered fuzzy evaluational model was also adopted for risk assessment and sorting. An empirical research was implemented in Chongqing City with 38 districts and counties as basic units,then fuzzy risk levels were classified and reasons were also explained preliminarily. Following conclusions were drawn:(1) Mountainous urban disaster fuzzy risk assessment results based on "comprehensive empowered(AHP-EVM)" fuzzy evaluation model own high reliability, and can reflect elements of fuzzy risk. This research results were validated and consistent with "fuzzy matter-element evaluation".(2) The fuzzy risk of disaster system level in Chongqing is moderate. Meanwhile, Yuzhong District, Jiangbei District, Chengkou County, Fengjie County and Youyang County stand high disaster system risk; these areas are the focus of disaster prevention and mitigation in the future.