辽宁阜新煤矿生态环境动态演变的预测

通过对影响煤矿生态质量16个指标因子的筛选,初步建立自然环境、生态环境及社会经济三维体系下由年开采量等7个指标组成的煤矿生态环境质量预测指标体系;根据2003年至2012年阜新煤矿生态环境指标因子环境统计数据,采用数值拟合得出埋藏深度、地面塌陷面积/开采面积、煤尘爆炸指数、矿区居民人均GDP及矿区经济贡献率5个指标因子的Quadratic模型;优化建立煤矿生态环境动态预测指标体系。应用煤矿生态环境指标因子预测模型对阜新煤矿2003年至2012年煤矿生态环境指标因子动态演变预测效果验证,验证结果表明Quadratic模型预测误差相对较小,煤尘爆炸指数指标因子的预测拟合曲线相关系数最高(R2=0.967 26)。最后应用Quadratic模型对2013年阜新煤矿矿区生态环境指标因子进行预测,并结合矿区实际给出预测模型的适用性。

A Study on Dynamic Evolution of Ecological Environment of Fuxin Coal Mine

By screening 16 index factors of mine ecological quality, the index system of ecological environment quality of coal mine was made by 7 indicators. According to the environment statistics of Fuxin coal mine ecological environmental index from 2003 to 2012, Quadratic model related to production, burial depth, surface subsidence area of coal dust explosion, residents/mining area, GDP and the economic contribution rate was established. To optimize the dynamic prediction of ecological environment index system of coal mine, the origin model was applied dynamically to predict the evolution from 2003 to 2012 in Fuxin coal mine. Results show that the prediction of quadratic fitting and exponential models has relatively small error. Coal dust explosion index coefficients have the highest prediction curve fitting (R²=0.967 26).