基于GIS的安徽省耕地畜禽养殖废弃物氮负荷估算及污染潜势研究

利用2012年安徽省各县市区的畜禽养殖统计数据及耕地面积,估算了安徽省畜禽养殖废弃物氮负荷,并利用德尔菲法和层次分析法确定了安徽省耕地畜禽养殖废弃物氮养分污染潜势评价的影响因素及权重,在此基础上,利用GIS空间分析技术对安徽省耕地畜禽养殖废弃物氮养分污染潜势进行了评价分析。结果表明,2012年安徽省的耕地畜禽养殖废弃物氮负荷分布很不均匀,最大值为217.08kg/hm~2,最小值24.27kg/hm~2,平均值为81.99kg/hm~2。绝大部分县市区都未超过170kg/hm~2的限量标准,但太湖县、歙县、砀山县和宁国市分别达到了217.08、212.76、197.82和192.95kg/hm~2。从空间特征看,安徽省各县市区耕地畜禽养殖废弃物氮养分污染潜势评价结果差异较大,大部分区域都属于一般等级以下,污染潜势高的区域主要分布在安徽省的东南部及西部的山地丘陵区,主要包括宁国市、歙县和太湖县,污染潜势较高的区域有长丰县、休宁县、绩溪县、黄山市市辖区、金寨县、岳西县、明光县及潜山县的部分区域。

A Study on Livestock Manure Nitrogen Load and Pollution Potential of Farmland in Anhui Province, China Based on GIS

The nitrogen load of livestock manure for farmland in Anhui Province, China was estimated according to the statistical data of livestock and poultry breeding and farmland area in Anhui Province in 2012. Then, the influencing factors and their weights on evaluating potential livestock manure nitrogen pollution on farmland in Anhui Province were studied by using Delphi method and the Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP)method. On this basis, combined with GIS spatial analysis technology, this paper evaluated the potential livestock manure nitrogen pollutionon farmland in Anhui Province. Results show that the spatial distribution of livestock manure nitrogenin farmland was uneven and the maximum, minimum and average of livestock manure nitrogen load are 217.08 kg/hm², 24.27 kg/hm² and 81.99 kg/hm², respectively. For most of counties in Anhui Province, the value is lower than 170 kg/hm², but for Ningguo City, Shexian County, Dangshan County and Taihu County, they are 192.95 kg/hm², 212.76 kg/hm², 197.82 kg/hm² and 217.08 kg/hm², respectively. In view of the spatial characteristic, the distribution of the potential livestock manure nitrogen pollution of farmland in Anhui Province is also uneven. Most of the region is under the general level, and the high pollution potential areas are mainly distributed in the southeast and west of Anhui Province, such as Ningguo City, Shexian County and Taihu County. The relatively high pollution potential areas are mainly distributed in Changfeng County, Xiuning County, Jixi County, Huangshan City, and part of Jinzhai County, Yuexi County and Mingguang County.