济南市极端降水变化特征及趋势分析

本文采用济南市1951—2012 a的逐日降水资料，由百分比阈值定义出极端降水事件，并运用spss软件、线性回归、M-K检验分析和Morlet小波分析等方法分析济南市极端降水特征及变化趋势。研究表明：济南市过去62 a极端降水总体变化为上升趋势。极端降水事件较多发生在持续降水中，并且极端值与正常值相比差值越来越大，极端性增强。极端降水日数在增加，并且多日数的极端降水事件分布逐渐密集。虽然连续的极端降水有所减少，但是突发性强，引致城市内涝的风险反而增大。济南市从21世纪开始极端降水有明显突变增加现象。极端降水量数序列分别存在30 a、10 a左右的周期振荡，较大尺度30 a上的周期振荡非常明显，10 a左右的周期说明每个极端降水增强的大周期中都存在逐渐增强的小周期。未来济南市极端降水还会明显增强，及时加强灾害预防对于城市发展意义重大。

Variation tendency and distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation in Jinan

According to the daily precipitation data from 1951 to 2012 in Jinan, defines the extreme precipitation index by the percentage threshold value, using methods like spss, linear regression, Mann-Kendall check and Wavelet to analysis Jinan extreme precipitation characteristics and variations. The research indicated: The 62 a violent precipitation increased in Ji,nan during the past, overall change shown a trend of escalation. The extreme precipitation event usually occurred in continuing precipitation, the difference between extremum and normal value were obviously growing. Extreme precipitation date number was increasing. Extreme precipitation event of long time number occurred frequently, and the frequency gradually increased. However the continual violent rainfall drops, bursty, the risk of bringing city a waterlogging was increased. Under the threat of extreme precipitation intensity, the urban areas design a Sustainable drainage system will be especially important. Extreme precipitation in Jinan starting from the 21st century obviously increased out of a sudden. Violent precipitation number sequence is at about the 30 a, 10 a periodic oscilation. 30 a periodic oscillation is very obvious, 10 a indicates that inside every extreme precipitation enhancement cycle has a small increasingly cycle. In the next few years, extreme precipitation in Jinan will be strengthened. To prevent this sort of disaster will be significant to the development in the urban areas.