| 柴达木盆地水资源承载方案系统分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈冰,李丽娟,郭怀成,孙海林.柴达木盆地水资源承载方案系统分析[J].环境科学,2000,21(3):16-16-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈冰 李丽娟 郭怀成 孙海林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京大学环境科学中心,北京,100871
2. 中国科学院地理研究所,北京,100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重点科技攻关项目(The National Key Science and Technology Project during the Ninth Five- Year Plan Period):96-912-04-01-03 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用系统动力学对柴达木盆地的水资源承载力进行了深入研究 .根据该地区的特点以人口为主要承载目标建立了柴达木盆地水资源系统动力学仿真模型 ( SDIMWRSCCB) .通过该模型对柴达木盆地 2020年和 2050年的水资源承载力以及承载人口进行了预测和分析 ,提出高、中、低 3个方案 .并进一步分析比较得出一个经济和环境协调发展的综合方案 ,从而为决策者提供了科学的决策依据 .
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 水资源承载力 人口 柴达木盆地 |
| 文章编号： | 0250-3301(2000)03-0016-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 5/7/1999 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 1999年5月7日 |
System Analysis on Water Resources Supporting Alternatives for Chaidamu Basin |
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| Chen Bing,Li Lijuan,Guo Huaicheng and Sun Hailin.System Analysis on Water Resources Supporting Alternatives for Chaidamu Basin[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Science,2000,21(3):16-16-21. |
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| Authors: | Chen Bing Li Lijuan Guo Huaicheng and Sun Hailin |
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| Abstract: | System Dynamics(SD) was used for further studying the water resource supporting capacity of Chaidamu Basin.According to the character istics of the basin,the System Dynamics Imitating Model of Water Resource Supporting Capacity of Chaidamu Basin(SDIMWRSCCB) was built based on the main supporting projective of population.The water resource supporting capacity and supporting population of Chaidamu Basin in 2020 and 2050 were forecasted and analyzed by means of the model.Three alternatives,High,Middle and Low Alternatives,were put forward,and then a synthesis one under which environment and economy can be developed in harmony was made.So the decision maker can use it to make more scientific and dependable decision. |
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| Keywords: | system dynamics water resource supporting capacity supporting population Chaidamu Basin |
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