环境政策的综合影响评价模型系统及应用

研究和建立一套以可计算的均衡理论模型(CGE)为核心,同时与大气环境质量模型和健康影响模型(暴露-反应模型)连接,组成了环境政策综合评价模型,为综合评价环境政策产生的各类影响及其相互作用提供了一种评价方法.利用该模型系统,分析北京市采用能源环境税对北京市的大气环境、健康、经济发展和居民福利水平的影响.模型分析认为,北京市采用单一的能源环境税可以改善北京市的大气环境,但也将迟缓北京市的经济发展;如果北京市在采用能源环境税的同时进行绿色环境税收制度改革,则不但可以改善环境,而且可以促进北京市的可持续发展.

Integrated Model System for Environmental Policy Analysis

An integrated model system for environmental policy analysis is built up with a Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model as a core model,which is linked with an environmental model,air dispersion model,and health effect model(exposure-response functions) in an explicit way,therefore the model system is capable of evaluating the effects of policies on environment,health and economy and their interactions comprehensively.This method is used to analyze the effects of Beijing presumptive(energy) taxes on air quality,health,welfare and economic growth,and the conclusion is that sole presumptive taxes may slow down the economic growth,but the presumptive taxes with green tax reform can promote Beijing sustainable development.