中国水泥行业通过CCUS技术的减排潜力评估

中国水泥行业面临巨大的碳达峰与碳中和压力.CO₂捕集利用与封存（CCUS）技术是能够实现化石资源低碳利用的碳减排技术.在中国水泥企业数据基础上，采用全流程CCUS系统模型（ITEAM-CCUS）评估CCUS的碳减排潜力对水泥企业碳中和非常重要.模型从源汇匹配距离、捕集率、CCUS技术和技术水平这4个方面设置了10种情景，完成了水泥行业的企业筛选、场地筛选、CCUS技术经济评估和源汇匹配，初步回答了水泥企业结合CCUS的封存场地、减排规模、成本范围和优先项目分布等关键问题.在250 km匹配距离、85%净捕集率、CO₂-EWR技术和当前技术水平情景，44%的水泥企业可以利用CO₂强化地下水开采（CO₂-EWR）技术开展碳减排，累计年碳减排量为6.25亿t，平准化成本为290~1838元·t^-1；具有全流程CO₂-EWR早期示范优势的地区为新疆、内蒙古、宁夏、河南和河北等.水泥企业开展全流程CCUS项目技术可行，可以实现大规模CO₂减排，低成本项目具有早期示范机会.研究结果可为水泥行业低碳发展和CCUS商业化部署提供定量参考.

Assessment of Emission Reduction Potential of CO2 Capture, Geological Utilization, and Storage in Cement Industry of China

The cement industry faces great pressure from the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. CO₂capture, geological utilization, and storage(CCUS) technology is crucial for CO₂ mitigation in large-scale fossil-based industries. An integrated techno-economic assessment model of CCUS was improved here to assess the potential of CCUS retrofits in the cement industry in China, and the cost curve or supply curve of CCUS in the cement industry was obtained. The model set up ten scenarios from four aspects:source-sink matching distance, capture rate, CCUS technology, and technical level. The cement enterprise screening, site screening, techno-economic evaluation, and source-sink matching of CCUS were completed to answer some key problems in realizing low-carbon development via CCUS, such as enterprise inventory, storage site, emission reduction scale, and cost range. Under the scenario of 250 km matching distance, 85% net capture rate, CO₂-enhanced water recovery technology, and current technical level, 44% of cement enterprises reduced carbon emission via CCUS, the cumulative capacity reached 625 million tons per year, and the levelized cost was 290-1838 yuan·t^-1. The projects with a levelized cost of fewer than 600 yuan·t^-1 accounted for 77% and could reduce CO₂ emission by 564 million tons annually. The projects whose levelized cost was less than 400 yuan·t^-1 could reduce CO₂ by 199 million tons per year. When the coupling of CO₂-enhanced oil recovery and CO₂-enhanced water recovery technology was considered, the levelized cost was 27% lower. When the cement capacity was less than 530 million tons per year, the additional cost of cement production was 95-300 yuan·t^-1. Under technological progress to 2030, the levelized cost will be reduced by 9%-15%. The regions with early demonstration advantages of full-chain CO₂-enhanced water recovery technology were Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Henan, and Hebei. Additionally, the areas suitable for cement CCUS cluster included Ordos Basin, Junggar Basin, Bohai Bay Basin, and Songliao Basin. It is technically feasible for the cement industry to deploy full-chain CCUS projects, and low-cost projects have an early demonstration opportunity. These results can provide a quantitative reference for the low-carbon development of the cement industry and the commercial deployment of CCUS in cement production.