京津冀地区机动车细颗粒物污染的健康影响分析

机动车尾气排放对城市空气污染的影响日益严峻，而对特定污染源大气污染排放特征及健康影响进行评估可以为环境空气质量管理提供科学依据.以PM_2.5为研究对象，分析京津冀地区2010～2020年机动车污染排放特征、导致的健康效应与经济损失.结果表明，2010～2020年间京津冀地区机动车PM_2.5排放量呈现先逐年递增后缓慢下降的趋势；不同车型污染物排放贡献率显示，重型货车和重型客车为PM_2.5主要贡献车型；不同城市机动车污染物排放特征存在差异，北京市污染物贡献率下降幅度明显，其余城市污染减排也不容忽视.机动车PM_2.5污染对人群健康影响的评估结果表明，京津冀地区各健康终端发生人数总体呈上升趋势，其中，2020年PM_2.5污染造成约34 337人(95%CI:9 025～57 209人)早逝、4.55万人(95%CI:1.08～8.02万人)住院、 28.23万人(95%CI:14.05～41.63万人)门诊及43.90万人(95%CI:16.03～67.92万人)患病；研究期间(201...

Health Impact Analysis of Fine Particulate Pollution from Vehicles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Vehicle exhaust emissions are posing an increasingly adverse impact on urban air quality. The emission characteristics analysis and health effect assessment of specific air pollution sources can provide scientific evidence for environmental air quality management. The characteristics and health effects of PM_2.5 emissions from vehicles and economic losses caused by them in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region were analyzed from 2010 to 2020. From 2010 to 2020, PM_2.5 emissions from vehicles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region showed an annual increase at first, followed by a slow decrease. According to the emission sharing ratios of different vehicle types, heavy-duty trucks and buses were the main contributors to PM_2.5, with a total contribution rate of over 65.27%. The emission characteristics of vehicle pollutants varied in different cities. The contribution rate of pollutants in Beijing decreased significantly, and the emission reduction in other cities was also dramatic. The evaluation results of the impact of PM_2.5 emissions from vehicles on human health showed that the number of health endpoints in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was on the rise. In 2020, PM_2.5 pollution caused approximately 34337 premature deaths (95% CI:9025-57209), 45500 hospitalizations (95% CI:10800-80200), 282300 outpatients (95% CI:140500-416300), and 439000 people to fall ill (95% CI:160300-679200). Beijing had the largest number of patients that presented different health endpoints. The total health and economic losses caused by PM_2.5 emissions from vehicles in 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 27.742 billion yuan (95% CI:8.616-44.643 billion yuan), 90.608 billion yuan (95% CI:28.476-144.050 billion yuan), and 129.965 billion yuan (95% CI:40.829-205.245 billion yuan), respectively. In addition, due to the differences in vehicle ownership, PM_2.5 concentrations, population, and economic losses per case of health outcome, the health effects and economic losses varied in different cities within the region. Among these cities, Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, and Tangshan were at higher health risks and suffered more economic losses. The results of this study will help reduce the adverse effects on health and economic losses caused by pollution discharge and provide scientific evidence for environmental protection authorities to implement targeted pollution prevention and control.