中国第三产业能源碳排放影响要素指数分解及实证分析

基于碳排放量基本等式,采用Divisia指数分解法建构中国第三产业能源碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析了2000～2009年间,能源结构、能源效率、产业结构及产出四因素对中国第三产业能源碳排放的影响.结果显示产业产出及能源结构对拉动中国第三产业能源碳排放的贡献率逐年增长,能源效率及产业结构对抑制中国第三产业能源碳排放发挥作用,但产业结构的影响作用不强,且抑制因素作用无法抵消拉动因素引起的碳排放增长.基于此,研究为第三产业能源碳减排提供了政策建议.

Decomposition Model of Energy-Related Carbon Emissions in Tertiary Industry for China

Tertiary industry has been developed in recent years. And it is very important to find the factors influenced the energy-related carbon emissions in tertiary industry. A decomposition model of energy-related carbon emissions for China is set up by adopting logarithmic mean weight Divisia method based on the identity of carbon emissions. The model is adopted to analyze the influence of energy structure, energy efficiency, tertiary industry structure and economic output to energy-related carbon emissions in China from 2000 to 2009. Results show that the contribution rate of economic output and energy structure to energy-related carbon emissions increases year by year. Either is the contribution rate of energy efficiency or the tertiary industry restraining to energy-related carbon emissions. However, the restrain effect is weakening.