三峡库区1980～2005年农业用地氮平衡时空变化研究

利用三峡库区分区县农业统计资料,对OECD土壤表观氮平衡模型进行适当改进,计算分析三峡库区1980~2005年农业用地氮平衡时空变化格局及驱动机制.结果表明,1980~2005年库区氮总输入和总盈余量呈显著增长趋势,分别从23.4万t和14.4万t增长到45.6万t和30万t;氮总输出量1980~1995年呈增加趋势,从9.0万t到16.7万t,1995年后基本保持稳定趋势;单位面积氮盈余量1980~1998年总体呈持续增加趋势,从133.4 kg/hm2增长到310.3 kg/hm2,1998年后逐步趋向稳定,但空间分布区域差异性增强,主要集中在库中和库首区县,与库区移民数量空间分布具有一定的相似性;氮输入贡献主要来源于化肥、牲畜粪便、人粪尿和生物固氮,累计占总输入90%以上;1995年前库区氮平衡变化主要受国内大量使用化肥宏观环境影响,1995年后受水库淹没和移民影响较大,但其具体影响程度有待进一步分析;建议考虑适当发展副业、改变农业种植结构或进行生态移民等措施减少氮排放量.

Spatio-Temporal Changes of Nitrogen Balance in 1980-2005 for Agricultural Land in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Based on the long-term agricultural statistics data at the county scale, the estimation of nitrogen balance from 1980 to 2005 for agricultural land in Three Gorges Reservoir Area was made by the OECD soil surface nitrogen balance model with some suitable modification. The spatio-temporal changes of nitrogen balance and its drivers were analyzed. The results showed that the total inputs and total surplus of nitrogen from 1980 to 2005 presented increasing trends continuously, from 23.4×10⁴ t and 14.4×10⁴ t to 45.6×10⁴ t and 30×10⁴ t respectively. The total output of nitrogen in 1980-1995 was at the increasing trend, from 9.0×10⁴ t to 16.7×10⁴ t, while that of 1996-2005 was keeping steady. The average unit surplus of nitrogen in 1980-1998 was also at the increasing trend, from 133.4 kg/hm² to 310.3 kg/hm²; and the trend inclined to be steady after 1998, while the spatial differential pattern toned up. The great spatial changes for nitrogen surplus from 1980 to 2005, mainly centralized at the head and the middle of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, similar to the spatial distribution of the resettlement. Fertilizer, manure and biological fixation were the main contributors of nitrogen input sources, accumulatively totaled for above 90%. Nitrogen balance changes were mainly influenced by the macro-environment of fertilizer utilization before 1995, while which were influenced by the large amounts of the resettlement for Three Gorges Project after 1995. However, how much the effects of the resettlement on nitrogen balance need to be further explored. Developing sideline, agricultural structure transition or ecological resettlement should be considered to control nitrogen emission.