基于动态CGE的挥发性有机污染物VOCs排放预测和控制研究

从成本效益角度,通过宏观经济手段来控制挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)的研究将对我国改善大气环境有十分积极的作用.在先前研究的基础上,将静态CGE动态化,以2007年为基准年,预测了我国挥发性有机物在当前政策下到2020年的排放量.模拟对排放量高的部分工业部门征收环境税,探讨了其对排放量以及经济系统的影响,为我国挥发性有机物的控制对策提出了建议.结果表明,通过征收税收,可以实现减排VOCs的目的,但经济成本也较大.由于部门经济关联关系,虽未对交通运输业征收VOCs环境税,其影响也较大.因此,在采用宏观经济政策控制VOCs时,需要做好相应的补贴措施.

Study of VOCs Emission Prediction and Control Based on Dynamic CGE

Researches on controlling volatile organic compounds (VOCs) through macroeconomic policy from the view of cost-benefit analysis are very important for our country to improve the air environment. Based on our previous study, this paper predicted future VOCs emissions until 2020 under current policies with 2007 as reference year by using dynamic CGE model. Meanwhile, environmental tax was imposed in ten industries with high emission and the impacts of emissions and economic system were discussed. Finally, policy implementations for VOCs emission control were suggested for policy-makers. The results showed that environment tax could mitigate VOCs emission, but it also resulted in high cost. Owing to the highly related relationship between different sectors, although transport sector was not taxed, it also suffered a great economic influence. Thus, when using the tax policy for reducing VOCs, subsidy for special sector is necessary.