基于实时交通信息的道路机动车动态排放清单模拟研究

以上海市为例开展了实际道路车流分布、行驶工况和车辆技术的实地调查,建立了道路车流、VSP分布和车辆技术数据库.在此基础上,基于实时的车流、车速等交通信息,构建了动态化的道路机动车污染物排放清单模拟方法,并开展了城区典型道路的机动车小时排放模拟案例研究.调查结果表明,上海市城区道路车流以轻型客车和出租车为主,分别占各时段车流总量的48%～72%和15%～43%;VSP分布与平均车速存在较好的规律,各车型VSP峰值随平均车速的上升向高负荷去移动,且峰值逐渐降低;当前上海市车辆以国2和国3车型为主,经过年检站调查结果的校正,国2和国3车型分别占各车型的11%～70%和17%～51%.模拟案例结果显示,道路机动车CO、VOC、NOx和PM日排放峰谷比可达3.7、4.6、9.6和19.8左右,CO和VOC排放主要来自轻型客车和出租车,与车流变化的相关性较好,而NOx和PM排放主要来自重型客车和公交车,且主要集中在早晚高峰时段.采用建立的动态排放模拟方法可实时反映实际道路的机动车排放变化,获取高排放路段和时段,为交通环境管理提供重要的技术手段和决策依据.

Dynamic Road Vehicle Emission Inventory Simulation Study Based on Real Time Traffic Information

The vehicle activity survey, including traffic flow distribution, driving condition, and vehicle technologies, were conducted in Shanghai. The databases of vehicle flow, VSP distribution and vehicle categories were established according to the surveyed data. Based on this, a dynamic vehicle emission inventory simulation method was designed by using the real time traffic information data, such as traffic flow and average speed. Some roads in Shanghai city were selected to conduct the hourly vehicle emission simulation as a case study. The survey results show that light duty passenger car and taxi are major vehicles on the roads of Shanghai city, accounting for 48%-72% and 15%-43% of the total flow in each hour, respectively. VSP distribution has a good relationship with the average speed. The peak of VSP distribution tends to move to high load section and become lower with the increase of average speed. Vehicles achieved Euro 2 and Euro 3 standards are majorities of current vehicle population in Shanghai. Based on the calibration of vehicle travel mileage data, the proportions of Euro 2 and Euro 3 standard vehicles take up 11%-70% and 17%-51% in the real-world situation, respectively. The emission simulation results indicate that the ratios of emission peak and valley for the pollutants of CO, VOC, NO_x and PM are 3.7, 4.6, 9.6 and 19.8, respectively. CO and VOC emissions mainly come from light-duty passenger car and taxi, which has a good relationship with the traffic flow. NO_x and PM emissions are mainly from heavy-duty bus and public buses and mainly concentrate in the morning and evening peak hours. The established dynamic vehicle emission simulation method can reflect the change of actual road emission and output high emission road sectors and hours in real time. The method can provide an important technical means and decision-making basis for transportation environment management.