中国磷消费结构的变化特征及其对环境磷负荷的影响

本研究先建立物质流分析模型,分析1980～2008年期间我国磷消费结构的变化特征及其对环境磷负荷的影响,随后探讨若干社会经济因素同我国磷消费污染之间的关联性.结果表明,城市生活和农村生活的人均磷养分输入分别由0.83 kg.a-1和0.75 kg.a-1增加到1.20 kg.a-1和0.99 kg.a-1,而城市生活磷养分循环比例则由62.6%下降到15.6%;畜禽养殖和种植业的磷养分输入持续增加,但前者磷养分循环比例由67.5%下降到40.5%,后者大量磷养分蓄积在农业土壤;人口、城市化水平、种植业发展水平以及畜禽养殖业发展水平与我国磷消费污染总负荷的相关系数达到0.90以上,说明它们是我国磷消费污染的重要诱因;环境Kuznets曲线研究表明我国目前仍处于初级发展阶段,牺牲环境质量以换取经济发展.研究表明,我国磷消费体系正向线性开放的代谢结构演变,磷养分流失持续增加,环境磷负荷大大加重.

Change Traits of Phosphorous Consumption Structure in China and Their Effects on Environmental Phosphorous Loads

Substance flow analysis was used to construct a model to analyze change traits of China's phosphorous (P) consumption structure from 1980 to 2008 and their influences on environmental phosphorous loads, then the correlation between several socio-economic factors and phosphorous consumption pollution was investigated. It is found that phosphorous nutrient inputs of urban life and rural life on a per capita level climbed to 1.20 kg·a^-1 and 0.99 kg·a^-1 from 0.83 kg·a^-1and 0.75 kg·a^-1 respectively, but phosphorous recycling ratios of urban life fell to 15.6% from 62.6%. P inputs of animal husbandry and planting also kept increasing, but the recycling ratio of the former decreased from 67.5% to 40.5%, meanwhile much P input of the latter was left in agricultural soil. Correlation coefficients were all above 0.90, indicating that population, urbanization level, development levels of planting and animal husbandry were important incentives for P consumption pollution in China. Environmental Kuznets curve showed that China still stayed in the early development stage, promoting economic growth at an expense of environmental quality. This study demonstrates that China's P consumption system is being transformed into a linear and open structure, and that P nutrient loss and environmental P loads increase continually.