| 佛山臭氧浓度预报方程的建立与应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈辰,洪莹莹,谭浩波,司徒淑娉,程银琳,步巧利,吴蒙,潘巧英.佛山臭氧浓度预报方程的建立与应用[J].环境科学,2022,43(10):4316-4326. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈辰 洪莹莹 谭浩波 司徒淑娉 程银琳 步巧利 吴蒙 潘巧英 |
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| 作者单位： | 佛山市气象局, 佛山 528000;广东省环珠江口气候环境与空气质量变化野外科学观测研究站, 广州 510275;珠三角环境气象预报预警中心, 广东省生态气象中心, 广州 510640;广东省佛山生态环境监测站, 佛山 528000 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省科技计划项目（科技创新平台类）（2019B121201002）；广东省气象局科研项目（GRMC2019M30，GRMC2018M07）；广东省气象局科技创新团队项目（GRMCTD202003）；佛山市气象局环境气象技术研究团队项目（202003）；佛山市气象局科研项目（202102） |
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| 摘 要： | 臭氧作为大气中的二次污染物，其形成和变化复杂，臭氧预报更是当下空气污染治理的难题之一.通过分析2014~2017年佛山地区近地面O3浓度与高低层气象要素的关系，建立了佛山O3浓度预报方程，并进行了检验和应用.结果表明，佛山近地面O3的变化与高低层气象要素关系密切，气温和日照时数等气象要素与O3浓度呈显著正相关，相对湿度、总（低）云量和风速等与其呈负相关；高浓度O3污染发生的气象条件为小风速、晴间少云、低相对湿度、较长的日照时间和较高的温度，高浓度O3潜势指数（HOPI）和风向指数（WDI）的定义可以较好地衡量O3污染气象条件的好坏；综合考虑HOPI和不同高度WDI等13种气象要素，采用多指标叠套和多元逐步回归建立了佛山地区臭氧浓度预报方程；利用2018年资料检验发现，模拟值与实测值二者的相关系数R可达0.82，预报方程具有良好的拟合效果和可预报性.
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| 关 键 词： | 臭氧(O3) 臭氧预报 气象因子 风向指数 多元回归 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/12/2 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/2/18 0:00:00 |
Establishment and Application of Foshan Ozone Concentration Forecast Equation |
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| CHEN Chen,HONG Ying-ying,TAN Hao-bo,SITU Shu-ping,CHENG Yin-lin,BU Qiao-li,WU Meng,PAN Qiao-ying.Establishment and Application of Foshan Ozone Concentration Forecast Equation[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Science,2022,43(10):4316-4326. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Chen HONG Ying-ying TAN Hao-bo SITU Shu-ping CHENG Yin-lin BU Qiao-li WU Meng PAN Qiao-ying |
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| Institution: | Foshan Meteorological Bureau, Foshan 528000, China;Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Guangzhou 510275, China;Pearl River Delta Center for Environmental Meteorology Prediction and Warning, Guangdong Ecological Meteorology Center, Guangzhou 510640, China;Foshan Ecology and Environmental Monitoring Station of Guangdong Province, Foshan 528000, China |
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| Abstract: | The formation and changes of ozone (O3), a secondary pollutant in the atmosphere, are complex, and ozone forecasting has become one of the current problems in air pollution prevention and control. In this study, the relationships between the near-surface O3 concentration and meteorological elements (high- and low-level) in Foshan from 2014 to 2017 were analyzed, and the concentration forecasting equation was established, tested, and applied. The results showed that the near-surface O3 changed closely related to high- and low-level meteorological elements. Meteorological elements such as temperature and sunshine hours were significantly positively correlated with O3 concentration, whereas relative humidity, total (low) cloud cover, and wind speed were negatively correlated with O3. Heavy O3 pollution often occurred with meteorological conditions of low wind speed, sunny days and few clouds, low relative humidity, longer sunshine time, and higher temperature. The definitions of high-concentration O3 potential index (HOPI) and wind direction index (WDI) in the Foshan area could better characterize the meteorological conditions of O3 pollution. Considering 13 meteorological elements, such as HOPI and WDI at different heights, the O3 concentration forecasting equation in the Foshan area was established using multi-indicator stacking and multiple stepwise regression methods. Using the 2018 data, it was found that the correlation coefficient R between the simulated values and the measured values reached 0.82, and the forecast equation had a good fitting effect and predictability. |
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| Keywords: | ozone (O3) ozone forecast meteorological factors wind direction index multiple regression |
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