长三角区域非道路移动机械排放清单及预测

基于长三角典型城市非道路移动机械实地调查成果,结合长三角各城市非道路移动机械相关指标现状及变化趋势,建立了长三角三省一市非道路移动机械大气污染源排放清单,并开展了2005~2025年区域非道路移动机械保有量、燃油消费量及污染物排放量预测.2014年长三角非道路移动机械总量约为8.23×106台,柴油消费量约9.95×106t,SO_2、NO_x、CO、VOCs、PM10和PM_(2.5)排放分别为5.5×10~3、4.9×10~5、7.6×10~5、1.1×10~5、2.9×10~4和2.7×10~4t,农用机械占长三角机械总量的93%,CO和VOCs排放贡献分别为88%和77%;建筑及市政工程机械的NO_x和PM_(2.5)排放贡献较为突出,分别占49%和35%.长三角中部和北部城市机械排放贡献相对突出.2005~2014年间,长三角地区非道路移动机械保有量、油耗及排放增幅均相对较快,预计到2020和2025年,区域非道路移动机械总量增速明显放缓,柴油消费量分别比2014年增加2%和8%.到2020年,SO_2、NO_x、CO、VOCs、PM10和PM_(2.5)排放分别比2014年下降97%、10%、3%、10%、11%和11%;到2025年分别下降97%、16%、3%、15%、21%和21%.预计未来长三角区域非道路移动机械排放将呈现逐年下降趋势,但相比机动车降幅仍相对较小,其排放贡献将日益突出,加快老旧机械淘汰并进一步提升机械排放标准对削减非道路移动机械排放总量具有十分重要的意义.

Emission Inventory and Prediction of Non-road Machineries in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China

An air pollutant emission inventory of non-road machineries for the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region was developed, based on local surveys and relative indicator predictions for cities in the region. Population, fuel consumption, and air pollutant emissions of non-road machineries were predicted for the period 2005 to 2025. The population of non-road machineries in the YRD region in 2014 was 8.23×10⁶ units, diesel consumption was about 9.95×10⁶ t, and SO₂, NO_x, CO, VOCs, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 emissions were 5.5×10³, 4.9×10⁵, 7.6×10⁵, 1.1×10⁵, 2.9×10⁴, and 2.7×10⁴ t, respectively. Agricultural machineries accounted for 93% of the total population, with their CO and VOC emissions contributing 88% and 77% of respective totals. Construction machineries contributed 49% and 35% of NO_x and PM_2.5 emissions. Air pollutant emissions from non-road machineries were mainly concentrated in the middle and northern cities of the YRD region. During the period 2005-2014, the growth rates of population, fuel consumption, and air pollutant emissions of non-road machineries in the YRD region were relatively high. It is estimated that growth will be slowing down in 2020 and 2025. Diesel consumption will increase by 2% and 8% in 2020 and 2025, respectively, compared with 2014 levels. By 2020, SO₂, NO_x, CO, VOCs, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 emissions will decrease by 97%, 10%, 3%, 10%, 11%, and 11%, respectively; by 2025, these decreases will reach 97%, 16%, 3%, 15%, 21%, and 21%, respectively. It is expected that air pollutant emissions from non-road machineries will continue to decline in future. However, the decreasing trend of NO_x, VOCs, and PM_2.5 emissions from motor vehicles reached 22%, 50%, and 48%, much greater than that of non-road machinery. The emission contributions of non-road machinery will become increasingly significant in future. It is necessary to accelerate the scrappage of old machinery and to further promote emission standards for new machinery to reduce emissions from non-road machineries.