广州市能源供需结构问题及趋势预测分析

针对广州市经济高速发展对能源需求与供给的紧张局面,分析了广州市能源供需现状及存在的问题.运用部门分析法、时间序列法对广州市2005～2010年的能源需求进行预测,得出了2010年能源总需求的预测值为4 534.7×10⁴t标准煤,能源供需差额为4 500×10⁴t标准煤.根据实证分析,结合全国和广东省能源供应和消费的大环境,认为广州市未来的能源发展战略应该包括以下要点:①立足于国家的整体能源发展规划即依靠“西电东送”、三峡的并网水电、核电和新能源;②停止建立或扩充目前污染较重、能耗物耗较高且布局在广州夏季上风方向上的黄埔火力发电厂;③不应该完全依靠广东的贫困山区的煤炭和小水电但可以充分发挥其资源潜力.

Structure Problem Analysis and Trend Prediction of Energy Supply and Demand in Guangzhou City

This paper aims at the tense situation of energy demand and supply and analysis the current situation and problems of energy supply and demand in Guangzhou. We predict total demand of energy which will be 4534.7 x 10(4) of standard coal in 2010 by using the department analysis method and sequence method, and the balance between supply and demand of energy will be 45,000 thousand tons of standard coal. From the primary conclusions of our empirical analysis and together with the overall environment of energy in Guangdong and China, we think the development strategies of energy in Guangzhou in the future should involve several main points as following: (1) Energy of Guangzhou should base on the overall energy development programming of China and that is, it should depend on the "transmission of electricity from the western to the eastern region", power incorporation of Sanxia, power generated of water energy, nuclear power and new resource. (2) Stop setting up or expending the natural monopoly and resource oriented Huangpu thermal power plant located in the windward direction of summer of Guangzhou which has serious pollution and consumes large quantities of energy. (3) It should not absolutely depend on the coal of the poor mountainous region of Guangdong and small power station and can make full use of the resource potential.