2015年12月北京市空气重污染过程分析及污染源排放变化

2015年12月,北京市及周边地区连续多次出现重污染天气.在此期间,北京市空气重污染应急指挥部两次发布红色预警.为厘清该月重污染的发生过程、生消变化,测算了应急措施下的污染源排放变化情况,并采用数值模拟和地面观测相结合的分析方法,对重污染的形成原因进行初步分析,同时对应急措施的环境效果进行评估.结果表明:1虽然2015年12月北京市主要大气污染物排放量较去年同期有所下降,但排放强度仍然较大,是重污染过程的内因;气象扩散条件不利是重要的外因,地面风速弱,大气稳定度高,相对湿度高,边界层高度降低,源排放及气象因素共同导致了此轮重污染过程.2红色预警应急措施可实现污染物日排放强度减少36%左右,PM_2.5浓度下降11%~21%,预警的应急措施不能扭转重污染的态势,但对于缓解PM_2.5污染加重趋势有明显的效果.3在重污染天气下,污染物仍在大气中累积,应急措施最明显的效果发生在实施后的48~72 h后,因此建议在PM_2.5浓度快速上升前36~48 h实施减排措施,从而对空气质量预报准确性提出更高的要求.

Exploring the Severe Haze in Beijing During December, 2015: Pollution Process and Emissions Variation

Severe haze episodes shrouded Beijing and its surrounding regions again during December, 2015, causing major environmental and health problems. Beijing authorities had launched two red alerts for atmospheric heavy pollution in this period, adopted a series of emergency control measures to reduce the emissions from major pollution sources. To better understand the pollution process and emissions variation during these extreme pollution events, we performed a model-assisted analysis of the hourly observation data of PM_2.5 and meteorological parameters combined with the emissions variation of pollution sources. The synthetic analysis indicated that: 1 Compared with the same period of last year, the emissions of atmospheric pollution sources decreased in December 2015. However, the emission levels of primary pollutants were still rather high, which were the main intrinsic causes for haze episodes, and the unfavorable diffusion conditions represented the important external factor. High source emissions and meteorological factors together led to this heavy air pollution process. 2 Emergency control measures taken by the red alert for heavy air pollution could decrease the pollutants emission by about 36% and the PM_2.5 concentrations by 11% to 21%. Though the implementation of red alert could not reverse the evolution trend of heavier pollution, it indeed played an active role in mitigation of PM_2.5 pollution aggravating. 3 Under the heavy pollution weather conditions, air pollutants continued to accumulate in the atmosphere, and the maximum effect by taking emergency measures occurred 48-72 hours after starting the implementation, therefore, the best time for executing emergency measures should be 36-48 hours before the rapid rise of PM_2.5 concentration, which requires a more powerful demand on the accuracy of air quality forecast.