2010~2017年四川省机动车污染物排放趋势分析

四川省机动车保有量日益增加，本研究基于特定的清单计算方法及多口径的活动水平数据，得到四川省2010~2017年机动车尾气污染物排放量.结果表明，四川省小型载客汽车的保有量增长最快，不管是机动车还是小型载客车保有量的增速，均高于全国平均增速；2017年四川省机动车共排放CO、NO_x、SO₂、NH₃、HC、PM_2.5、PM₁₀、BC和OC分别为706.9、275.3、0.3、5.7、164.8、8.1、8.9、4.1和1.4 kt，除NH₃以外，四川省所排放的其他污染物呈现波动中下降的趋势，在2014~2016年前后达到高值.柴油车的保有量变化与NO_x的变化显示出较强的相关性；新车排放标准加严是最具有减排潜力的措施之一，同时随着实施年份的增长，显示的减排潜力越大，燃油品质的提升对于污染物的减排每年也会有6%以上的减排效力.未来应将HC和NO_x减排作为四川省机动车管控的重要内容.

Trends in Vehicle Emissions in Sichuan Province, 2010-2017

Vehicle pollution in Sichuan Province is becoming increasingly serious. Here, based on specific inventory calculation methods and multi-caliber activity level data, this study calculated vehicle exhaust emissions from 2010 to 2017 in Sichuan Province. The results show that the average growth rate of vehicle ownership in Sichuan is higher than the national trend. In 2017, vehicle emissions of CO, NO_x, SO₂, NH₃, HC, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC, and OC were 706.9, 275.3, 0.3, 5.7, 164.8, 8.1, 8.9, 4.1, and 1.4 kt, respectively. Except for NH₃, showed a downward trend, peaking in 2014-2016. Diesel vehicle ownership showed a strong correlation with the emission of NO_x. Based on these observations, stricter vehicle emission standards offer the greatest potential for emissions reductions, with early implementation offering the greatest reduction potential. The improvement of fuel quality will also have more than a 6% emission reduction effect on pollutant emission each year. HC and NO_x emissions reductions will be an important control on vehicle pollution in Sichuan Province in the future.