中国人为源颗粒物排放现状与趋势分析

利用排放因子法，基于电力、工业、民用、交通等部门的活动水平和排放因子，建立了2000年和2005年中国分省、分部门、分粒径的颗粒物（PM）排放清单.利用情景分析法，基于能源预测，分析了在不同颗粒物控制方案下2010～2030年中国颗粒物的排放趋势.结果表明，我国2005年的总悬浮颗粒物（TSP）、可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）和细颗粒物（PM_2.5）的排放量分别是29.98、15.30和9.79 Mt， 2000～2005年间的排放增长率分别是3.4%、4.7%和5.4%.在现有政策情景下，我国2030年TSP和PM_2.5的排放量分别是23.06和10.59 Mt，工业锅炉成为最大的颗粒物排放源.通过提高能源利用效率，2030年可在基准情景基础上TSP和PM_2.5分别减排15%和16%；通过增大执法力度，2015年可再减排25%的TSP和10%的PM_2.5排放，之后通过加严排放标准，推广高效除尘装置的应用，2030年TSP和PM_2.5可再减排21%和19%，其排放量分别达到13.81和6.88 Mt.颗粒物的综合控制措施应覆盖电厂、工业、民用等各个领域，从提高能效、保证执法、强化政策3个方面着手.

Current Status and Future Prospects of Anthropogenic Particulate Matter Emissions in China

The emission inventory of particulate matter (PM) in 2000 and 2005 were established based on the activity data and emission factors of power, industrial, residential and transportation sectors in China. Future emissions from 2010 to 2030 were projected under different scenarios of energy consumption and PM emission control policies. The emissions of TSP, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 in 2005 were 29.98Mt, 15.30 Mt and 9.79 Mt respectively, and the annual increasing rates were 3.4%, 4.7% and 5.4% during 2000 to 2005. By 2030, the emissions of TSP and PM_2.5 would be 23.06 Mt and 10.59 Mt under reference scenario, of which industrial boilers are the largest contributor. With improvement of energy efficiency, the emissions of TSP and PM_2.5 would be reduced by 15% and 16% respectively in 2030 compared with that under reference scenario. By intensifying the enforcement of legislation, 25% of TSP and 10% of PM_2.5 can be further reduced in 2015. By tightening the emission standard and promoting high-efficiency dust collector after 2015, 21% of TSP and 19% of PM_2.5 can be further reduced in 2030 and the emissions can become 13.81 Mt and 6.88 Mt separately. The control of particulate matter shall cover power, industrial and residential sectors. Actions shall include improving energy efficiency, enforcing legislation and tightening control policies.