基于污染防治技术模拟的造纸行业环境管理方法研究

为评估工业水污染物减排潜力、探究污染防治技术模拟在污染物总量控制、污染物排放限值等环境管理中的应用,按照"原料-工艺-技术-产品"的耦合关系建立了"工业污染物减排潜力分析及环境管理"模型,集成自下而上建模和情景分析等方法在我国造纸行业进行案例研究.结果表明,在政策组合情景下,废水、COD、氨氮在2015年的减排潜力分别为7×108t、39×104t、0.3×104t,2020年分别为13.8×108t、56×104t和0.5×104t;2010~2020年期间加强末端治理仍然是主要减排途径,但2015~2020年间行业结构调整的作用将逐渐提升,并使行业产污水平在2015年和2020年基本达到国内或国际先进水平,废水和氨氮指标在2015年和2020年基本满足排放标准,但COD难以达标.

Method for Environmental Management in Paper Industry Based on Pollution Control Technology Simulation

To evaluate the reduction potential of industrial water pollutant emissions and to study the application of technology simulation in pollutant control and environment management, an Industrial Reduction Potential Analysis and Environment Management (IRPAEM) model was developed based on coupling of "material-process-technology-product". The model integrated bottom-up modeling and scenario analysis method, and was applied to China's paper industry. Results showed that under CM scenario, the reduction potentials of waster water, COD and ammonia nitrogen would reach 7×10⁸ t, 39×10⁴ t and 0.3×10⁴ t, respectively in 2015, 13.8×10⁸ t, 56×10⁴ t and 0.5×10⁴ t, respectively in 2020. Strengthening the end-treatment would still be the key method to reduce emissions during 2010-2020, while the reduction effect of structure adjustment would be more obvious during 2015-2020. Pollution production could basically reach the domestic or international advanced level of clean production in 2015 and 2020; the index of wastewater and ammonia nitrogen would basically meet the emission standards in 2015 and 2020 while COD would not.