水污染预警DSS系统框架下的白河水质预警模型研究

为了应对频发的水环境污染事故,在污染事故发生后快速有效地制定应急响应措施,保护水环境,有必要在水源保护区建立水污染预警DSS系统,重点对系统建立的核心与难点——水质预警模型进行研究.密云水库是北京市最重要的地表水源地,以密云水库上游的白河为研究区域建立水污染预警DSS系统,设计水污染预警DSS系统的三层结构框架,将控制端、核心预警模型、GIS空间数据库紧密联合起来;在此基础上对核心预警模型的建模过程、参数取值等进行研究;最后以典型污染物氰化钠为例,设置水污染事故情景以及应急措施预案情景,进行了情景模拟分析.实例研究表明,此水质预警模型能够较准确地对污染发展趋势进行分析预测,并对不同的应急处理方案的实施效果进行模拟分析,模拟结果能够支持应急方案的制定与优选决策,达到了DSS系统的功能需求.

Water Quality Forewarning Model in the Framework of Water Pollution Forewarning DSS

In order to deal with the water pollution accident and take emergency measures effectively, water pollution forewarning decision support systems (DSS) is important to be established and water quality forewarning model is one of the hard points of DSS. Miyun Reservoir is the most important surface water sources of Beijing. Baihe River, which is the upstream river of Miyun Reservoir, is selected as the case study in this paper. The three-layer frame of the water pollution forewarning DSS is proposed with the core of mathematical model; then model development and parameterization are studied. Finally, a typical accident of NaCN pollution is taken for instance; the scenario of the accident is simulated and analyzed by DSS. The case study shows that the DSS could precisely analyze and forecast the pollution development trend, and simulate the different impact of emergency proposal. The result could support the primary decision of the emergency proposal to meet the functional requirement of the system.