基于达标约束的南京市环境空气质量情景模拟

以2030年南京市6项污染物达标为约束,在2015年大气污染物排放清单基础上,利用CMAQ模型分析了PM_(2.5)对南京本地不同前体物排放的敏感性,通过情景分析预测排放清单,模拟了4种减排情景的空气质量变化,最终获得达标约束下大气污染物总量控制指标.模拟结果显示,减少一次颗粒物PPM (primary particulate matter)排放对降低大气中的PM_(2.5)浓度最为有效;在周边地区减排的基础上,本地减少PPM排放对PM_(2.5)年均浓度下降的相对贡献可达88%,其次为NH_3、NOx、SO_2与VOCs减排,其相对贡献分别为10. 3%、5. 5%、3. 2%与0. 5%;相比2015年,4种情景下南京市主要大气污染物减排比例在22%～53%,未来控制活动水平对减排SO_2、NH_3与CO较有效,而NOx和VOCs末端治理方面还有较大空间;将SO_2、NOx、PM10、PM_(2.5)、BC、OC、CO、VOCs及NH_3的排放量分别控制在2. 43×104、8. 47×10~4、9. 42×10~4、3. 74×10~4、0. 19×10~4、0. 30×10~4、26. 56×10~4、13. 08×10~4及1. 50×10~4t以内时,预计南京市6项污染指标可以达到国家环境空气质量二级标准.

Scenario Simulation Study Constrained by the Ambient Air Quality Standards in Nanjing

With the constraint that all six major pollutants in Nanjing must meet the air quality standards by 2030, on the basis of the 2015 emission inventory, the CMAQ air quality model was used to conduct PM_2.5 sensitivity tests, and scenario analysis was used to predict the emission inventory and the air quality of four emission reduction scenarios were simulated. Finally, the total control index under the constraint of meeting the standards was obtained. The results show that primary particulate matter (PPM) reduction is the most effective at reducing the concentration of PM_2.5 in the atmosphere, on the basis of emission reduction in surrounding areas, PPM emission reduction accounts for 88% of the total reduction of the annual average concentration of PM_2.5, followed by NH₃, NO_x, SO₂, and VOCs, which contribute to 10.3%, 5.5%, 3.2%, and 0.5%, respectively. Compared to 2015, the reduction ratios of the major pollutants are between 22% and 53%. Controlling the activity level is more effective for SO₂, NH₃ and CO emissions reduction, while there is still more opportunity for NO_x and VOCs end treatment. When the emissions of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, BC, OC, CO, VOCs, and NH₃ are controlled to 2.43×10⁴, 8.47×10⁴, 9.42×10⁴, 3.74×10⁴, 0.19×10⁴, 0.30×10⁴, 26.56×10⁴, 13.08×10⁴, and 1.50×10⁴ t, respectively, it is expected that the levels of the six pollutants in Nanjing can meet the national ambient air quality level 2 standards.