利用胶州湾水环境指标分析青岛市环境经济关系

以青岛市-胶州湾为研究对象,选取胶州湾水体中DIN、PO4-P和COD年均浓度为环境指标,以青岛市人均GDP为经济指标,分析了1980~2010年胶州湾水体环境质量变化与青岛市经济发展的关系。结果表明,胶州湾水体中DIN浓度随时间呈线性增长趋势,但与青岛市人均GDP的拟合关系具有显著的EKC单峰曲线特征,人均GDP约4.5万元/a时出现转折点,此后DIN浓度随经济发展呈下降趋势。胶州湾水体中PO4-P和COD浓度与青岛市人均GDP呈现N型曲线关系,人均GDP约5.2~5.7万元/a时出现转折点。胶州湾PO4-P浓度随时间呈波动上升,但因胶州湾生态系统中P营养盐相对不足,PO4-P浓度会受到初级生产过程的影响,其随经济发展的关系并不完全由污染治理相关的经济活动所控制;COD浓度随经济发展有先下降后上升、再下降的趋势,能够显示经济发展的贡献,但更多地反映了点源治理的影响。点源、非点源污染治理和产业结构调整等措施是环境经济关系改善的主因,充足的环保投资则是其经济保障。本研究可为认识其它沿海城市的环境经济关系提供借鉴。

The relationships between environment and economy of Qingdao City by using water quality parameters in Jiaozhou Bay

The relationships between water quality parameters in Jiaozhou Bay and GDP per capita in Qingdao city were analyzed based on the data from 1980 to 2010. It was indicated that DIN concentration in Jiaozhou Bay had a linear increase trend with time in the last 30 years, however, the fitting relationship with GDP per capita of Qingdao city shown a typical EKC curves with its pick at a GDP per capita of~45000/a. A N-type curve was shown between concentration of PO4-P/COD in Jiaozhou Bay and GDP per capita in Qingdao city with the turning point at GDP per capita about 52000~57000 RMB/a. PO4-P concentration in Jiaozhou Bay was fluctuating over time. It was affected by phytoplankton and their ecological responses to nutrient structure of the seawater due to its shortage comparing with DIN. COD concentration varied along with the economic index and had a previous trend of derease in the last few years. This trend reflected the influence of investment for environmental protection but more impacted by the control of point sources. Both PO4-P and COD were not entirely controlled by pollution govern-related economic activities. Control of waste water discharge by environmental protection measures and industrial structure adjustment to reduce emission of pollutants are always the direct reason to improve the relationships between environment and economic, however sufficient investment for environmental protection regulates this improving processes. This study may provide a reference for understanding the relationships of environment and economic to other coastal cities in China.